Anthropic's recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September have driven its 77.5% implied probability, as these models currently top independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific applications like biomolecular optimization. Traders cite Anthropic's leadership in large-context handling, adaptive thinking features, and real-world enterprise adoption, reinforced by safety-focused partnerships and internal model improvements using Claude itself. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release this month and Google's Gemini updates provide competitive pressure but trail in current leaderboards, leaving room for shifts before November if new capabilities emerge from any lab. Market odds reflect trader consensus on sustained frontier performance amid rapid AI development cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 78%
Google 9%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 5.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
78%
9%
OpenAI
9%
Alibaba
5%
Mistral
5%
Baidu
5%
SpaceXAI
4%
Amazon
4%
StepFun
3%
Moonshot
3%
DeepSeek
3%
Z.ai
3%
ByteDance
3%
Tencent
3%
Nvidia
3%
MiniMax
3%
Meituan
2%
Meta
1%
Thinky
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Anthropic 78%
Google 9%
OpenAI 9%
Alibaba 5.1%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 30, 2026
Anthropic
$713 KL.
78%
$211 KL.
9%
OpenAI
$328 KL.
9%
Alibaba
$61 KL.
5%
Mistral
$106 KL.
5%
Baidu
$157 KL.
5%
SpaceXAI
$125 KL.
4%
Amazon
$158 KL.
4%
StepFun
$186 KL.
3%
Moonshot
$123 KL.
3%
DeepSeek
$51 KL.
3%
Z.ai
$51 KL.
3%
ByteDance
$149 KL.
3%
Tencent
$51 KL.
3%
Nvidia
$158 KL.
3%
MiniMax
$51 KL.
3%
Meituan
$51 KL.
2%
Meta
$118 KL.
1%
Thinky
$156 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$120 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$123 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September have driven its 77.5% implied probability, as these models currently top independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific applications like biomolecular optimization. Traders cite Anthropic's leadership in large-context handling, adaptive thinking features, and real-world enterprise adoption, reinforced by safety-focused partnerships and internal model improvements using Claude itself. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release this month and Google's Gemini updates provide competitive pressure but trail in current leaderboards, leaving room for shifts before November if new capabilities emerge from any lab. Market odds reflect trader consensus on sustained frontier performance amid rapid AI development cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September have driven its 77.5% implied probability, as these models currently top independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific applications like biomolecular optimization. Traders cite Anthropic's leadership in large-context handling, adaptive thinking features, and real-world enterprise adoption, reinforced by safety-focused partnerships and internal model improvements using Claude itself. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release this month and Google's Gemini updates provide competitive pressure but trail in current leaderboards, leaving room for shifts before November if new capabilities emerge from any lab. Market odds reflect trader consensus on sustained frontier performance amid rapid AI development cycles.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$3,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 8:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's recent launches of Claude Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1 in early September have driven its 77.5% implied probability, as these models currently top independent benchmarks in coding, agentic reasoning, and scientific applications like biomolecular optimization. Traders cite Anthropic's leadership in large-context handling, adaptive thinking features, and real-world enterprise adoption, reinforced by safety-focused partnerships and internal model improvements using Claude itself. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra release this month and Google's Gemini updates provide competitive pressure but trail in current leaderboards, leaving room for shifts before November if new capabilities emerge from any lab. Market odds reflect trader consensus on sustained frontier performance amid rapid AI development cycles.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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