SpaceX's completed June 2026 IPO at roughly $1.77–2 trillion valuation underpins the 82% market-implied odds, reflecting its established public market cap from Starlink's revenue growth and diversified operations. OpenAI, by contrast, has deferred its listing until 2027 amid AI safety and alignment priorities, opting instead for bridge financing that targets a $1.4 trillion valuation after its prior $852 billion round. Traders view the timing gap and unresolved regulatory scrutiny around large language model capabilities as limiting OpenAI's near-term IPO scale relative to SpaceX's precedent. Key catalysts ahead include OpenAI's revenue trajectory nearing $70 billion annualized and any acceleration in its 2027 filing process.