Tesla’s limited California progress underpins the 83.5% market-implied odds against a robotaxi launch by year-end. The company holds only an entry-level DMV Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit requiring safety drivers and has accumulated zero unsupervised test miles in recent years, far short of the 50,000-mile supervised threshold needed before applying for driverless authorization. It has also not sought CPUC approval for paid autonomous passenger service, leaving Bay Area operations classified as supervised ride-hailing rather than true robotaxis. These regulatory and data gaps, consistent with multi-year patterns, outweigh optimistic statements on unsupervised FSD timelines and limit any realistic path to commercial deployment in the remaining months of 2026.