Tesla faces steep regulatory barriers to launching unsupervised robotaxis in California by year-end, with the company holding only a supervised Autonomous Vehicle Testing Permit from the DMV as of mid-2026 and zero applications filed for the CPUC passenger-service authorizations required for paid, driverless operations. Recent reporting confirms Tesla has logged no autonomous test miles in the state for years and continues limited Bay Area activity under human supervision or standard taxi permits, far short of the extensive supervised mileage and safety-plan approvals needed for deployment. With roughly four months remaining and precedents like Waymo showing multi-year timelines, traders see limited scope for the necessary permits, testing validation, and operational scaling before December 31.