Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.1% implied probability to OpenAI closing its IPO above $1.5 trillion market cap, fueled by the March 31 landmark $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—validating explosive AI growth potential with enterprise revenue surpassing 40% of total. Pre-IPO instruments trading near $900 billion further support adjacent high-valuation bins at 27.5% (750B–1T) and 26.0% (1T–1.25T). Countering this, early May reports of missed revenue targets, CFO Sarah Friar's advocacy for a 2027 delay amid $74 billion projected 2028 losses and compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns price "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 22.5%, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings and Q2 financial disclosures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1.5T+ 47.4%
1T–1.25T 30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 22%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$16,310 KL.
$16,310 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
4%
500–750B
16%
750B–1T
24%
1T–1.25T
30%
1.25T–1.5T
11%
1.5T+
47%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
22%
1.5T+ 47.4%
1T–1.25T 30%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 22%
1.25T–1.5T 11%
$16,310 KL.
$16,310 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$149 KL.
4%
500–750B
$287 KL.
16%
750B–1T
$389 KL.
24%
1T–1.25T
$3,197 KL.
30%
1.25T–1.5T
$478 KL.
11%
1.5T+
$311 KL.
47%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$11,499 KL.
22%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.1% implied probability to OpenAI closing its IPO above $1.5 trillion market cap, fueled by the March 31 landmark $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—validating explosive AI growth potential with enterprise revenue surpassing 40% of total. Pre-IPO instruments trading near $900 billion further support adjacent high-valuation bins at 27.5% (750B–1T) and 26.0% (1T–1.25T). Countering this, early May reports of missed revenue targets, CFO Sarah Friar's advocacy for a 2027 delay amid $74 billion projected 2028 losses and compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns price "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 22.5%, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings and Q2 financial disclosures.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$16,310Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.1% implied probability to OpenAI closing its IPO above $1.5 trillion market cap, fueled by the March 31 landmark $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—validating explosive AI growth potential with enterprise revenue surpassing 40% of total. Pre-IPO instruments trading near $900 billion further support adjacent high-valuation bins at 27.5% (750B–1T) and 26.0% (1T–1.25T). Countering this, early May reports of missed revenue targets, CFO Sarah Friar's advocacy for a 2027 delay amid $74 billion projected 2028 losses and compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns price "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 22.5%, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings and Q2 financial disclosures.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$16,310Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a leading 39.1% implied probability to OpenAI closing its IPO above $1.5 trillion market cap, fueled by the March 31 landmark $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—validating explosive AI growth potential with enterprise revenue surpassing 40% of total. Pre-IPO instruments trading near $900 billion further support adjacent high-valuation bins at 27.5% (750B–1T) and 26.0% (1T–1.25T). Countering this, early May reports of missed revenue targets, CFO Sarah Friar's advocacy for a 2027 delay amid $74 billion projected 2028 losses and compute commitments, and internal readiness concerns price "No IPO by December 31, 2027" at 22.5%, with key catalysts including potential S-1 filings and Q2 financial disclosures.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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