OpenAI's recent revenue run rate surpassing $40 billion annualized, alongside its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion private valuation from the March funding round, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a $1 trillion-plus IPO closing market cap, with the 1.5T+ bucket leading at 34.6%. Sustained enterprise API momentum and ChatGPT subscriptions drive this positioning, yet high compute costs, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and intensifying competition from Anthropic create dispersion across valuation buckets. Timing uncertainty—potential 2027 listing versus late-2026 debut—elevates the 9.5% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, while infrastructure commitments and path-to-profitability metrics remain key swing factors for traders assessing post-IPO multiples.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1.5T+ 34.7%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,962 KL.
$87,962 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
3%
750B–1T
11%
1T–1.25T
21%
1.25T–1.5T
23%
1.5T+
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
10%
1.5T+ 34.7%
1.25T–1.5T 23%
1T–1.25T 21.1%
750B–1T 11%
$87,962 KL.
$87,962 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$6,134 KL.
1%
500–750B
$8,207 KL.
3%
750B–1T
$9,178 KL.
11%
1T–1.25T
$13,974 KL.
21%
1.25T–1.5T
$8,531 KL.
23%
1.5T+
$22,606 KL.
35%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$19,333 KL.
10%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's recent revenue run rate surpassing $40 billion annualized, alongside its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion private valuation from the March funding round, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a $1 trillion-plus IPO closing market cap, with the 1.5T+ bucket leading at 34.6%. Sustained enterprise API momentum and ChatGPT subscriptions drive this positioning, yet high compute costs, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and intensifying competition from Anthropic create dispersion across valuation buckets. Timing uncertainty—potential 2027 listing versus late-2026 debut—elevates the 9.5% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, while infrastructure commitments and path-to-profitability metrics remain key swing factors for traders assessing post-IPO multiples.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$87,962Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's recent revenue run rate surpassing $40 billion annualized, alongside its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion private valuation from the March funding round, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a $1 trillion-plus IPO closing market cap, with the 1.5T+ bucket leading at 34.6%. Sustained enterprise API momentum and ChatGPT subscriptions drive this positioning, yet high compute costs, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and intensifying competition from Anthropic create dispersion across valuation buckets. Timing uncertainty—potential 2027 listing versus late-2026 debut—elevates the 9.5% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, while infrastructure commitments and path-to-profitability metrics remain key swing factors for traders assessing post-IPO multiples.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$87,962Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's recent revenue run rate surpassing $40 billion annualized, alongside its June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and $852 billion private valuation from the March funding round, underpins the market-implied odds favoring a $1 trillion-plus IPO closing market cap, with the 1.5T+ bucket leading at 34.6%. Sustained enterprise API momentum and ChatGPT subscriptions drive this positioning, yet high compute costs, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and intensifying competition from Anthropic create dispersion across valuation buckets. Timing uncertainty—potential 2027 listing versus late-2026 debut—elevates the 9.5% probability of no IPO by December 31, 2027, while infrastructure commitments and path-to-profitability metrics remain key swing factors for traders assessing post-IPO multiples.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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