Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026 72%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25T–1,5T 3.5%
500–750 tỷ 3.2%
$1,637,908 KL.
$1,637,908 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
1%
500–750 tỷ
3%
750 tỷ–1 nghìn tỷ
2%
1T–1,25T
2%
1,25T–1,5T
3%
1,5T+
11%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026
72%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026 72%
1,5T+ 10.6%
1,25T–1,5T 3.5%
500–750 tỷ 3.2%
$1,637,908 KL.
$1,637,908 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$266,158 KL.
1%
500–750 tỷ
$146,325 KL.
3%
750 tỷ–1 nghìn tỷ
$141,040 KL.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,379 KL.
2%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,174 KL.
3%
1,5T+
$100,916 KL.
11%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026
$304,915 KL.
72%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,637,908Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$1,637,908Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 72% implied probability to no OpenAI IPO by December 31, 2026, reflecting fresh Republican-led House Oversight Committee scrutiny of CEO Sam Altman's pre-IPO business dealings and personal investments, which surfaced in the past 48 hours and raises conflict-of-interest red flags ahead of any securities filing. CFO Sarah Friar's April warnings that a 2026 timeline is overly aggressive—amid $600 billion compute commitments, projected $14 billion 2026 losses, and missed user targets—compound doubts, echoing PitchBook's May assessment that Q4 goals are unattainable. Strong $25 billion annualized revenue and $852 billion private valuation underpin 10.5% odds for a 1.5T+ debut, but regulatory probes and Musk trial testimony loom as key catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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