Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$100B+ 42%
<$30B 27.7%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
28%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
42%
$100B+ 42%
<$30B 27.7%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 30, 2027
<$30B
$603 KL.
28%
$30B–$40B
$463 KL.
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 KL.
24%
$50B–$60B
$1,153 KL.
6%
$60B–$70B
$499 KL.
8%
$70B–$80B
$489 KL.
9%
$80B–$90B
$448 KL.
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 KL.
3%
$100B+
$1,742 KL.
42%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,324Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,324Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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