Ongoing US-Iran conflict and associated tanker attacks have tightened Middle East crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving Brent above $100 per barrel in September 2026 before partial export recovery and G7 reserve-release plans pulled WTI back near $91 and Brent near $102 as of early October. Global inventories have drawn down sharply, with low stock levels and refined-product shortages providing a floor, while weak Chinese demand and rising US output act as offsets. Analysts have lifted 2026 Brent forecasts toward $89–92 amid persistent but not total supply constraints. Key near-term catalysts include diplomatic progress on Hormuz access, OPEC quota decisions, winter fuel demand, and any further escalation that could test the 2008 nominal all-time high near $147.