Recent Japan core CPI readings, excluding fresh food, have hovered at 1.4-1.6% YoY through mid-2026, with Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% in July. Trader consensus tilts toward the ≤1.9% bucket at 51.2% implied probability versus 44% for 2.0-2.4%, reflecting downward revisions to Bank of Japan fiscal 2026 forecasts after oil prices fell following U.S.-Iran developments. Persistent energy subsidy effects, a still-elevated but volatile yen, and subdued wage pass-through have capped underlying pressures below the 2% target for multiple months. Key swing factors include upcoming national data releases, BOJ policy adjustments, and any renewed commodity spikes that could push readings into the 2-2.4% range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật≤1.9% 51.3%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2.5-2.9% 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$36,520 KL.
$36,520 KL.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
51%
2.0-2.4%
44%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 51.3%
2.0-2.4% 44%
2.5-2.9% 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$36,520 KL.
$36,520 KL.
Jan 22, 2027
≤1.9%
$17,315 KL.
51%
2.0-2.4%
$10,593 KL.
44%
2.5-2.9%
$5,149 KL.
1%
3.0-3.4%
$1,322 KL.
1%
3.5-3.9%
$800 KL.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,339 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Japan core CPI readings, excluding fresh food, have hovered at 1.4-1.6% YoY through mid-2026, with Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% in July. Trader consensus tilts toward the ≤1.9% bucket at 51.2% implied probability versus 44% for 2.0-2.4%, reflecting downward revisions to Bank of Japan fiscal 2026 forecasts after oil prices fell following U.S.-Iran developments. Persistent energy subsidy effects, a still-elevated but volatile yen, and subdued wage pass-through have capped underlying pressures below the 2% target for multiple months. Key swing factors include upcoming national data releases, BOJ policy adjustments, and any renewed commodity spikes that could push readings into the 2-2.4% range.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$36,520Ngày kết thúc
Jan 22, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent Japan core CPI readings, excluding fresh food, have hovered at 1.4-1.6% YoY through mid-2026, with Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% in July. Trader consensus tilts toward the ≤1.9% bucket at 51.2% implied probability versus 44% for 2.0-2.4%, reflecting downward revisions to Bank of Japan fiscal 2026 forecasts after oil prices fell following U.S.-Iran developments. Persistent energy subsidy effects, a still-elevated but volatile yen, and subdued wage pass-through have capped underlying pressures below the 2% target for multiple months. Key swing factors include upcoming national data releases, BOJ policy adjustments, and any renewed commodity spikes that could push readings into the 2-2.4% range.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food (All items less fresh food, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Khối lượng
$36,520Ngày kết thúc
Jan 22, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan core CPI readings, excluding fresh food, have hovered at 1.4-1.6% YoY through mid-2026, with Tokyo data accelerating modestly to 1.9% in July. Trader consensus tilts toward the ≤1.9% bucket at 51.2% implied probability versus 44% for 2.0-2.4%, reflecting downward revisions to Bank of Japan fiscal 2026 forecasts after oil prices fell following U.S.-Iran developments. Persistent energy subsidy effects, a still-elevated but volatile yen, and subdued wage pass-through have capped underlying pressures below the 2% target for multiple months. Key swing factors include upcoming national data releases, BOJ policy adjustments, and any renewed commodity spikes that could push readings into the 2-2.4% range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp