Recent national and Tokyo core-core CPI readings (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.7-1.9% YoY through July-August 2026, supported by government energy subsidies and favorable base effects that have limited pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures. The Bank of Japan’s latest Outlook Report projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward levels consistent with its 2% target in the second half of fiscal 2026 and 2027, aided by sustained wage gains and corporate price pass-through. These dynamics, combined with ongoing policy normalization and subdued broader momentum, underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for the 2.0-2.4% annual outcome, while the 33% odds on ≤1.9% reflect lingering downside risks from fiscal support and external volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and upcoming BoJ communications on the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2.0-2.4% 57%
≤1.9% 32%
2.5-2.9% 9.4%
3.0-3.4% 2.4%
$54,440 KL.
$54,440 KL.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
32%
2.0-2.4%
57%
2.5-2.9%
9%
3.0-3.4%
2%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
1%
2.0-2.4% 57%
≤1.9% 32%
2.5-2.9% 9.4%
3.0-3.4% 2.4%
$54,440 KL.
$54,440 KL.
Feb 12, 2027
≤1.9%
$16,089 KL.
32%
2.0-2.4%
$22,970 KL.
57%
2.5-2.9%
$10,393 KL.
9%
3.0-3.4%
$1,625 KL.
2%
3.5-3.9%
$1,485 KL.
<1%
4.0%+
$1,878 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent national and Tokyo core-core CPI readings (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.7-1.9% YoY through July-August 2026, supported by government energy subsidies and favorable base effects that have limited pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures. The Bank of Japan’s latest Outlook Report projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward levels consistent with its 2% target in the second half of fiscal 2026 and 2027, aided by sustained wage gains and corporate price pass-through. These dynamics, combined with ongoing policy normalization and subdued broader momentum, underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for the 2.0-2.4% annual outcome, while the 33% odds on ≤1.9% reflect lingering downside risks from fiscal support and external volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and upcoming BoJ communications on the rate path.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$54,440Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.Recent national and Tokyo core-core CPI readings (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.7-1.9% YoY through July-August 2026, supported by government energy subsidies and favorable base effects that have limited pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures. The Bank of Japan’s latest Outlook Report projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward levels consistent with its 2% target in the second half of fiscal 2026 and 2027, aided by sustained wage gains and corporate price pass-through. These dynamics, combined with ongoing policy normalization and subdued broader momentum, underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for the 2.0-2.4% annual outcome, while the 33% odds on ≤1.9% reflect lingering downside risks from fiscal support and external volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and upcoming BoJ communications on the rate path.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Japanese Consumer Price Index excluding fresh food and energy (All items less fresh food and energy, change from the previous year (%)) between 2025 and 2026 according to the Consumer Price Index Annual Report by the Statistics Bureau of Japan (SBJ).
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core-core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food and energy — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Khối lượng
$54,440Ngày kết thúc
Feb 12, 2027Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:26 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent national and Tokyo core-core CPI readings (excluding fresh food and energy) have held near 1.7-1.9% YoY through July-August 2026, supported by government energy subsidies and favorable base effects that have limited pass-through from Middle East-related oil pressures. The Bank of Japan’s latest Outlook Report projects underlying inflation rising gradually toward levels consistent with its 2% target in the second half of fiscal 2026 and 2027, aided by sustained wage gains and corporate price pass-through. These dynamics, combined with ongoing policy normalization and subdued broader momentum, underpin the 57.5% market-implied probability for the 2.0-2.4% annual outcome, while the 33% odds on ≤1.9% reflect lingering downside risks from fiscal support and external volatility. Key near-term catalysts include the September CPI release and upcoming BoJ communications on the rate path.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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