Polymarket traders price a 46% implied probability for China's 2026 annual CPI to land in the 1.1–1.5% band, reflecting April's consumer price index rise to 1.2% year-over-year—beating estimates of 0.8%—driven by energy cost surges from global oil shocks amid the Iran conflict, lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector headwinds, and subdued core inflation temper upside risks, positioning the 0.6–1.0% outcome at 29% as a close contender, while higher bands trail due to PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy signaling further stimulus via reserve requirement ratio cuts. Consensus forecasts from Citi and Focus Economics hover around 1%, with May CPI and PBOC's May 20 policy decision as key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina Annual Inflation 2026
China Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 43%
1.6 – 2.0% 28.3%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,784 KL.
$40,784 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
43%
1.6 – 2.0%
24%
2.0-2.4%
10%
2.5%+
4%
1.1 – 1.5% 43%
1.6 – 2.0% 28.3%
0.6 – 1.0% 24%
2.0-2.4% 13.4%
$40,784 KL.
$40,784 KL.
Jan 10, 2027
<-1.0%
$17,491 KL.
<1%
-0.9 – -0.5%
$2,347 KL.
<1%
-0.4 – 0.0%
$2,564 KL.
<1%
0.1 – 0.5%
$2,851 KL.
3%
0.6 – 1.0%
$2,956 KL.
24%
1.1 – 1.5%
$3,461 KL.
43%
1.6 – 2.0%
$3,992 KL.
24%
2.0-2.4%
$2,580 KL.
10%
2.5%+
$2,542 KL.
4%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a 46% implied probability for China's 2026 annual CPI to land in the 1.1–1.5% band, reflecting April's consumer price index rise to 1.2% year-over-year—beating estimates of 0.8%—driven by energy cost surges from global oil shocks amid the Iran conflict, lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector headwinds, and subdued core inflation temper upside risks, positioning the 0.6–1.0% outcome at 29% as a close contender, while higher bands trail due to PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy signaling further stimulus via reserve requirement ratio cuts. Consensus forecasts from Citi and Focus Economics hover around 1%, with May CPI and PBOC's May 20 policy decision as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Thị trường mở: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$40,784Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/Polymarket traders price a 46% implied probability for China's 2026 annual CPI to land in the 1.1–1.5% band, reflecting April's consumer price index rise to 1.2% year-over-year—beating estimates of 0.8%—driven by energy cost surges from global oil shocks amid the Iran conflict, lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector headwinds, and subdued core inflation temper upside risks, positioning the 0.6–1.0% outcome at 29% as a close contender, while higher bands trail due to PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy signaling further stimulus via reserve requirement ratio cuts. Consensus forecasts from Citi and Focus Economics hover around 1%, with May CPI and PBOC's May 20 policy decision as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Khối lượng
$40,784Ngày kết thúc
Jan 10, 2027Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 46% implied probability for China's 2026 annual CPI to land in the 1.1–1.5% band, reflecting April's consumer price index rise to 1.2% year-over-year—beating estimates of 0.8%—driven by energy cost surges from global oil shocks amid the Iran conflict, lifting the January–April average to 0.9%. Persistent weak domestic demand, property sector headwinds, and subdued core inflation temper upside risks, positioning the 0.6–1.0% outcome at 29% as a close contender, while higher bands trail due to PBOC's moderately loose monetary policy signaling further stimulus via reserve requirement ratio cuts. Consensus forecasts from Citi and Focus Economics hover around 1%, with May CPI and PBOC's May 20 policy decision as key near-term catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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