Recent monthly CPI readings near 0.9% year-on-year and analyst forecasts cluster around 0.6–1.0% for the full-year 2026 average, reflecting modest cost-push pressures from elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict offset by persistent food deflation and subdued domestic demand. Weak consumer spending, excess industrial capacity, and ongoing producer price deflation continue to limit broader price gains despite policy easing signals from the People’s Bank of China. Traders price the 0.6–1.0% band highest because base effects and structural headwinds make a sustained move above 1% unlikely without stronger fiscal stimulus or further commodity shocks, while risks of renewed deflation remain contained by recent non-food price gains.