**Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in August 2026, combined with the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, anchors trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** The latest Summary of Economic Projections shows a median path holding rates near 4.1% through year-end 2027, reflecting concerns over broad-based price pressures and resilient economic activity. Stable labor market conditions—with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains—reduce the urgency for near-term easing while supporting a tightening bias. Market-implied odds of no change (57%) versus a 25 basis point hike (31%) capture this consensus, as participants weigh the recent policy shift against the limited time for incoming data to alter the path before the January decision. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will serve as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo change 57%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$83,420 KL.
$83,420 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
9%
No change
57%
25 bps increase
31%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 57%
25 bps increase 31%
25 bps decrease 9%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$83,420 KL.
$83,420 KL.
Jan 27, 2027
50+ bps decrease
$14,114 KL.
5%
25 bps decrease
$19,606 KL.
9%
No change
$21,720 KL.
57%
25 bps increase
$22,458 KL.
31%
50+ bps increase
$5,523 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in August 2026, combined with the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, anchors trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** The latest Summary of Economic Projections shows a median path holding rates near 4.1% through year-end 2027, reflecting concerns over broad-based price pressures and resilient economic activity. Stable labor market conditions—with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains—reduce the urgency for near-term easing while supporting a tightening bias. Market-implied odds of no change (57%) versus a 25 basis point hike (31%) capture this consensus, as participants weigh the recent policy shift against the limited time for incoming data to alter the path before the January decision. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$83,420Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in August 2026, combined with the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, anchors trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** The latest Summary of Economic Projections shows a median path holding rates near 4.1% through year-end 2027, reflecting concerns over broad-based price pressures and resilient economic activity. Stable labor market conditions—with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains—reduce the urgency for near-term easing while supporting a tightening bias. Market-implied odds of no change (57%) versus a 25 basis point hike (31%) capture this consensus, as participants weigh the recent policy shift against the limited time for incoming data to alter the path before the January decision. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will serve as key swing factors.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$83,420Ngày kết thúc
Jan 27, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in August 2026, combined with the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, anchors trader expectations for the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** The latest Summary of Economic Projections shows a median path holding rates near 4.1% through year-end 2027, reflecting concerns over broad-based price pressures and resilient economic activity. Stable labor market conditions—with unemployment at 4.1% and solid payroll gains—reduce the urgency for near-term easing while supporting a tightening bias. Market-implied odds of no change (57%) versus a 25 basis point hike (31%) capture this consensus, as participants weigh the recent policy shift against the limited time for incoming data to alter the path before the January decision. Upcoming CPI and employment releases will serve as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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