Persistent inflation near 3.5% in June 2026, alongside a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with three dissents favoring a hike, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Recent easing in energy prices following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire helped moderate headline CPI from 4.2%, while core inflation dipped to 2.6%, supporting trader caution against near-term easing or aggressive tightening. Futures markets reflect expectations of possible 25 basis point increases later in 2026 amid resilient growth, with the July decision and upcoming August 12 CPI release likely shaping October pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$453,898 KL.
$453,898 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
5%
No change
69%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 5%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$453,898 KL.
$453,898 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$99,926 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$102,851 KL.
5%
No change
$102,363 KL.
69%
25 bps increase
$107,565 KL.
23%
50+ bps increase
$41,193 KL.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation near 3.5% in June 2026, alongside a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with three dissents favoring a hike, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Recent easing in energy prices following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire helped moderate headline CPI from 4.2%, while core inflation dipped to 2.6%, supporting trader caution against near-term easing or aggressive tightening. Futures markets reflect expectations of possible 25 basis point increases later in 2026 amid resilient growth, with the July decision and upcoming August 12 CPI release likely shaping October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$453,898Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation near 3.5% in June 2026, alongside a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with three dissents favoring a hike, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Recent easing in energy prices following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire helped moderate headline CPI from 4.2%, while core inflation dipped to 2.6%, supporting trader caution against near-term easing or aggressive tightening. Futures markets reflect expectations of possible 25 basis point increases later in 2026 amid resilient growth, with the July decision and upcoming August 12 CPI release likely shaping October pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$453,898Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 3.5% in June 2026, alongside a divided FOMC that held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in late July with three dissents favoring a hike, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 meeting. Recent easing in energy prices following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire helped moderate headline CPI from 4.2%, while core inflation dipped to 2.6%, supporting trader caution against near-term easing or aggressive tightening. Futures markets reflect expectations of possible 25 basis point increases later in 2026 amid resilient growth, with the July decision and upcoming August 12 CPI release likely shaping October pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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