**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$449,415 KL.
$449,415 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
6%
No change
69%
25 bps increase
23%
50+ bps increase
3%
No change 69%
25 bps increase 23%
25 bps decrease 6%
50+ bps increase 2.5%
$449,415 KL.
$449,415 KL.
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$99,924 KL.
1%
25 bps decrease
$99,708 KL.
6%
No change
$102,363 KL.
69%
25 bps increase
$106,228 KL.
23%
50+ bps increase
$41,192 KL.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Thị trường mở: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$449,415Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Khối lượng
$449,415Ngày kết thúc
Oct 28, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated but easing inflation pressures and the Federal Reserve’s recent policy hold underpin the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.** With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the July decision and June CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year, trader consensus favors a pause amid solid economic activity and mixed labor-market signals. The 22.5% odds of a 25-basis-point hike reflect lingering hawkish views from some FOMC participants and futures pricing that continues to embed one to two rate increases by year-end, while the low probabilities assigned to cuts underscore the absence of clear disinflation momentum. The September 15-16 meeting and upcoming July CPI release on August 12 remain key near-term catalysts that could shift these implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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