Recent labor market data showing only modest payroll gains of 29,000 in September and an unemployment rate holding near 4.2% have reinforced expectations for a pause at the October 28–29 FOMC meeting, aligning with the 83.5% market-implied probability of no change. The September FOMC minutes highlighted persistent inflation above the 2% target—with core PCE near 3%—and indicated that most participants see another 25-basis-point hike as appropriate by year-end, though decisions remain data-dependent without committing to consecutive tightening. This setup positions December as the more likely window for further policy adjustment, while upcoming September CPI and PCE releases could still influence final pricing ahead of the October decision.