Traders price the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 primarily around 3.75-4.0 percent because the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has held the target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent through mid-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal. Elevated price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, energy costs, and tariffs have prompted hawkish signals and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting, while recent softer employment and inflation readings have tempered near-term tightening odds ahead of the September FOMC decision. FOMC projections and economist surveys point to limited movement through year-end, with the proximity of November midterms raising the bar for action unless inflation reaccelerates sharply. This setup leaves modest upward adjustments as the consensus path over the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
3,75% 43.0%
4,0% 30.8%
4,25% 12.8%
3,5% 8.1%
$6,777,293 KL.
$6,777,293 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
<1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
<1%
3,25%
1%
3,5%
8%
3,75%
43%
4,0%
31%
4,25%
13%
≥ 4,5%
4%
3,75% 43.0%
4,0% 30.8%
4,25% 12.8%
3,5% 8.1%
$6,777,293 KL.
$6,777,293 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
≤1,0%
$249,110 KL.
<1%
1,25
$143,757 KL.
1%
1,5%
$146,989 KL.
<1%
1,75%
$149,318 KL.
<1%
2,0%
$264,558 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$88,603 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$173,569 KL.
<1%
2,75%
$61,685 KL.
1%
3,0%
$489,273 KL.
<1%
3,25%
$66,745 KL.
1%
3,5%
$203,161 KL.
8%
3,75%
$532,570 KL.
43%
4,0%
$1,370,069 KL.
31%
4,25%
$429,359 KL.
13%
≥ 4,5%
$2,408,529 KL.
4%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders price the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 primarily around 3.75-4.0 percent because the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has held the target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent through mid-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal. Elevated price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, energy costs, and tariffs have prompted hawkish signals and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting, while recent softer employment and inflation readings have tempered near-term tightening odds ahead of the September FOMC decision. FOMC projections and economist surveys point to limited movement through year-end, with the proximity of November midterms raising the bar for action unless inflation reaccelerates sharply. This setup leaves modest upward adjustments as the consensus path over the remaining months.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,777,293Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders price the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 primarily around 3.75-4.0 percent because the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has held the target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent through mid-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal. Elevated price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, energy costs, and tariffs have prompted hawkish signals and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting, while recent softer employment and inflation readings have tempered near-term tightening odds ahead of the September FOMC decision. FOMC projections and economist surveys point to limited movement through year-end, with the proximity of November midterms raising the bar for action unless inflation reaccelerates sharply. This setup leaves modest upward adjustments as the consensus path over the remaining months.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,777,293Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders price the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 primarily around 3.75-4.0 percent because the Federal Reserve, under Chair Kevin Warsh, has held the target range steady at 3.50-3.75 percent through mid-2026 amid persistent inflation above the 2 percent goal. Elevated price pressures from Middle East supply shocks, energy costs, and tariffs have prompted hawkish signals and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting, while recent softer employment and inflation readings have tempered near-term tightening odds ahead of the September FOMC decision. FOMC projections and economist surveys point to limited movement through year-end, with the proximity of November midterms raising the bar for action unless inflation reaccelerates sharply. This setup leaves modest upward adjustments as the consensus path over the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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