Traders assign the highest probability to a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent approach and the trajectory of inflation toward its 2% target. Early 2026 CPI and core PCE releases have shown gradual moderation, while labor market data through April indicate unemployment near 4.1% with contained wage pressures, supporting a measured easing cycle rather than rapid cuts. Market-implied odds embed expectations that the FOMC will deliver roughly 50–75 basis points of additional easing from current levels by late 2026, tempered by upside risks from services inflation and potential fiscal stimulus. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI and June employment report, will further shape these probabilities ahead of the next policy meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
Lãi suất của Fed sẽ là bao nhiêu vào cuối năm 2026?
3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,396 KL.
$6,523,396 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
<1%
1,75%
1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
4%
3,25%
8%
3,5%
7%
3,75%
60%
4,0%
15%
4,25%
4%
≥ 4,5%
1%
3,75% 59.7%
4,0% 14.7%
3,25% 8%
3,5% 7%
$6,523,396 KL.
$6,523,396 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$216,014 KL.
<1%
1,25
$134,363 KL.
1%
1,5%
$134,117 KL.
<1%
1,75%
$134,015 KL.
1%
2,0%
$246,025 KL.
<1%
2,25%
$70,849 KL.
<1%
2,5%
$158,852 KL.
1%
2,75%
$46,024 KL.
1%
3,0%
$454,736 KL.
4%
3,25%
$51,537 KL.
8%
3,5%
$190,202 KL.
7%
3,75%
$518,453 KL.
60%
4,0%
$1,358,628 KL.
15%
4,25%
$413,541 KL.
4%
≥ 4,5%
$2,396,040 KL.
1%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probability to a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent approach and the trajectory of inflation toward its 2% target. Early 2026 CPI and core PCE releases have shown gradual moderation, while labor market data through April indicate unemployment near 4.1% with contained wage pressures, supporting a measured easing cycle rather than rapid cuts. Market-implied odds embed expectations that the FOMC will deliver roughly 50–75 basis points of additional easing from current levels by late 2026, tempered by upside risks from services inflation and potential fiscal stimulus. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI and June employment report, will further shape these probabilities ahead of the next policy meetings.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$6,523,396Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Traders assign the highest probability to a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent approach and the trajectory of inflation toward its 2% target. Early 2026 CPI and core PCE releases have shown gradual moderation, while labor market data through April indicate unemployment near 4.1% with contained wage pressures, supporting a measured easing cycle rather than rapid cuts. Market-implied odds embed expectations that the FOMC will deliver roughly 50–75 basis points of additional easing from current levels by late 2026, tempered by upside risks from services inflation and potential fiscal stimulus. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI and June employment report, will further shape these probabilities ahead of the next policy meetings.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Khối lượng
$6,523,396Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders assign the highest probability to a 3.75% federal funds rate at the end of 2026, driven by the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent approach and the trajectory of inflation toward its 2% target. Early 2026 CPI and core PCE releases have shown gradual moderation, while labor market data through April indicate unemployment near 4.1% with contained wage pressures, supporting a measured easing cycle rather than rapid cuts. Market-implied odds embed expectations that the FOMC will deliver roughly 50–75 basis points of additional easing from current levels by late 2026, tempered by upside risks from services inflation and potential fiscal stimulus. Key upcoming releases, including the May CPI and June employment report, will further shape these probabilities ahead of the next policy meetings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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