Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
$225,212 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 KL.
3.9%
$44,197 KL.
12%
3.8%
$41,312 KL.
5%
3.7%
$27,383 KL.
2%
3.6%
$5,587 KL.
5%
3.5%
$32,973 KL.
4%
3.0%
$917 KL.
3%
2.0%
$514 KL.
2%
1.0%
$40,570 KL.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
Khối lượng
$225,212Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Khối lượng
$225,212Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent economic data and geopolitical tensions have kept the 10-year Treasury yield anchored near 4.65–4.70% in mid-August 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns that limit downside moves. Softer July producer prices and retail sales have tempered near-term rate-hike bets, yet University of Michigan inflation expectations remain above 4% amid Middle East energy risks. Market-implied paths point to limited easing, with consensus forecasts holding the yield in a 4.0–4.5% range through year-end. Key upcoming catalysts include August CPI and PPI releases, the next FOMC meeting, and any escalation in oil-price volatility that could widen the term premium further.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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