Recent FOMC actions and projections anchor trader sentiment for zero federal funds rate cuts in 2026. The September 16 decision raised the target range to 3.75–4.00 percent amid elevated inflation, with median SEP forecasts showing the policy rate ending 2026 at 4.1 percent and remaining near that level through 2027. Core PCE inflation near 3.4 percent, headline PCE around 3.7 percent, and a stable 4.1 percent unemployment rate reflect resilient demand and limited progress toward the 2 percent goal, prompting hawkish revisions to growth and rate paths. Market-implied odds above 96 percent for no cuts align with this data-driven stance and the Fed’s emphasis on containing upside inflation risks. A sharp labor-market deterioration or sustained disinflation below 3 percent could reopen easing discussions before year-end.