Strong labor market data and inflation readings remaining above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target through late 2026 have driven the 98.3% market-implied probability of zero rate cuts for the year. Recent nonfarm payrolls and core CPI releases show resilient employment alongside sticky price pressures, aligning with the Fed’s patient stance and keeping the policy rate unchanged. Traders price in this path as the baseline, supported by Treasury yields and forward guidance that signal limited room for easing. A sharp unexpected slowdown in job growth or rapid disinflation could still open the door for a December adjustment, though such outcomes remain low-probability given current trajectories.