Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
Có bao nhiêu đợt cắt giảm lãi suất của Fed vào năm 2026?
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 71.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 6%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.4%
$26,547,555 KL.
$26,547,555 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
72%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
6%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
2%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
1%
0 (0 điểm cơ bản) 71.5%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản) 16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản) 6%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản) 2.4%
$26,547,555 KL.
$26,547,555 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 điểm cơ bản)
$4,120,682 KL.
72%
1 (25 điểm cơ bản)
$1,229,144 KL.
16%
2 (50 điểm cơ bản)
$1,179,333 KL.
6%
3 (75 điểm cơ bản)
$1,085,634 KL.
2%
4 (100 điểm cơ bản)
$1,188,384 KL.
2%
5 (125 điểm cơ bản)
$1,399,328 KL.
1%
6 (150 điểm cơ bản)
$2,450,973 KL.
1%
7 (175 điểm cơ bản)
$1,314,643 KL.
1%
8 (200 điểm cơ bản)
$1,703,829 KL.
<1%
9 (225 điểm cơ bản)
$2,430,759 KL.
<1%
10 (250 điểm cơ bản)
$3,078,510 KL.
<1%
11 (275 điểm cơ bản)
$3,237,077 KL.
<1%
12+ (300+ điểm cơ bản)
$2,129,346 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,547,555Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$26,547,555Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71.5% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surge to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—fueled by energy price spikes from the Iran war, alongside resilient April nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.3%. The FOMC's April 29 decision to hold the fed funds target at 3.5%-3.75% amid record dissent underscored caution, aligning with banks like BofA and Goldman Sachs delaying cuts to 2027. March dot plot medians eyed gradual easing, but recent data has shifted sentiment toward prolonged holds. Watch May CPI on June 10 and the June FOMC for potential revisions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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