Polymarket traders price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting April's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—with a 0.6% monthly gain, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding subdued forecasts despite a slowdown from March. This data has solidified consensus for steady policy, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 98-99% for no June or July changes and hawkish views from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs anticipating holds or hikes later. Realistic challenges include sharper labor weakening or May CPI undershooting on June 10 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated economic projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.4%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$48,713 KL.
$48,713 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 5.4%
Other 3.0%
Pause–Cut–Cut 1.3%
$48,713 KL.
$48,713 KL.
Jul 29, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,311 KL.
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,636 KL.
5%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,567 KL.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,620 KL.
1%
Other
$1,595 KL.
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting April's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—with a 0.6% monthly gain, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding subdued forecasts despite a slowdown from March. This data has solidified consensus for steady policy, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 98-99% for no June or July changes and hawkish views from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs anticipating holds or hikes later. Realistic challenges include sharper labor weakening or May CPI undershooting on June 10 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated economic projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$48,713Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting April's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—with a 0.6% monthly gain, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding subdued forecasts despite a slowdown from March. This data has solidified consensus for steady policy, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 98-99% for no June or July changes and hawkish views from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs anticipating holds or hikes later. Realistic challenges include sharper labor weakening or May CPI undershooting on June 10 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated economic projections.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$48,713Ngày kết thúc
Jul 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders price a 93.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting April's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation and resilient labor markets. The April CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—with a 0.6% monthly gain, while nonfarm payrolls added 115,000 jobs, exceeding subdued forecasts despite a slowdown from March. This data has solidified consensus for steady policy, aligning with CME FedWatch odds near 98-99% for no June or July changes and hawkish views from J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs anticipating holds or hikes later. Realistic challenges include sharper labor weakening or May CPI undershooting on June 10 ahead of the June 16-17 meeting with updated economic projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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