Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJerome Powell in jail before 2027?
Jerome Powell in jail before 2027?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$3,538Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,538Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 3.6% implied probability of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell facing jail before 2027, reflecting near-certain confidence driven by the Department of Justice's April 24, 2026, decision to drop its criminal probe over alleged perjury on Fed headquarters renovation costs exceeding $2 billion. This closure followed a referral by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna and earlier market volatility—Kalshi odds hit 53% for federal charges in January—but eliminated credible legal pathways amid Powell's ongoing term through May 2026 and potential reappointment. Tail risks include improbable DOJ reopening under political pressure or unforeseen scandals eroding Fed independence, though institutional norms and lack of new evidence sustain the strong "No" positioning ahead of any Inspector General report.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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