Recent robust U.S. employment data, with October payrolls rising 165,000 against lower expectations and unemployment easing to 4.1%, has reinforced trader expectations for a 25-basis-point federal funds rate hike at the December 8-9 FOMC meeting. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, highlighted by the September CPI reading of 3.7% year-over-year and elevated energy prices, continues to drive the market-implied odds of roughly 76.5% for the hike versus 22.5% for no change. The October 28 hold, marked by two dissents favoring tighter policy, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s emphasis on data accumulation have aligned with this consensus, as resilient growth and labor conditions outweigh cooling signals. October CPI due November 10 and the November jobs report ahead of the decision remain key swing factors.