Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May and core measures at 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no additional Fed tightening this year. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, with projections showing a divided committee but median views tilting toward at most one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent energy price risks and a resilient labor market keep a modest tightening path in play, yet softer-than-expected data releases have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one hike totaling 0-25 basis points. The next CPI print on August 12 and September FOMC deliberations remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 KL.
$135,706 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3 (75 bps)
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3 (75 bps) 3.0%
$135,706 KL.
$135,706 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 KL.
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 KL.
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 KL.
12%
3 (75 bps)
$13,121 KL.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 KL.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May and core measures at 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no additional Fed tightening this year. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, with projections showing a divided committee but median views tilting toward at most one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent energy price risks and a resilient labor market keep a modest tightening path in play, yet softer-than-expected data releases have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one hike totaling 0-25 basis points. The next CPI print on August 12 and September FOMC deliberations remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Thị trường mở: Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$135,706Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May and core measures at 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no additional Fed tightening this year. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, with projections showing a divided committee but median views tilting toward at most one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent energy price risks and a resilient labor market keep a modest tightening path in play, yet softer-than-expected data releases have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one hike totaling 0-25 basis points. The next CPI print on August 12 and September FOMC deliberations remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Khối lượng
$135,706Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent cooling in U.S. inflation, with June 2026 CPI easing to 3.5% year-over-year from 4.2% in May and core measures at 2.6%, has anchored trader expectations for limited or no additional Fed tightening this year. The FOMC held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% in both June and July meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh, with projections showing a divided committee but median views tilting toward at most one 25-basis-point hike. Persistent energy price risks and a resilient labor market keep a modest tightening path in play, yet softer-than-expected data releases have shifted market-implied odds toward zero or one hike totaling 0-25 basis points. The next CPI print on August 12 and September FOMC deliberations remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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