The surge in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023, driven by a 0.6% monthly jump and soaring energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions—has shifted trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 62.5% implied probability of no Fed funds rate hike in 2026. The Federal Reserve held its target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 29 FOMC statement amid an 8-4 dissent split, with officials like Boston Fed's Collins now flagging upside inflation risks warranting potential hikes. March dot plot projected modest cuts to low-3% by 2027, but recent data has eroded cut expectations per CME FedWatch, elevating hike odds to around 37%. Key catalysts ahead: May CPI release June 10 and June FOMC projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$1,092,409 KL.
$1,092,409 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Có
$1,092,409 KL.
$1,092,409 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The surge in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023, driven by a 0.6% monthly jump and soaring energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions—has shifted trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 62.5% implied probability of no Fed funds rate hike in 2026. The Federal Reserve held its target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 29 FOMC statement amid an 8-4 dissent split, with officials like Boston Fed's Collins now flagging upside inflation risks warranting potential hikes. March dot plot projected modest cuts to low-3% by 2027, but recent data has eroded cut expectations per CME FedWatch, elevating hike odds to around 37%. Key catalysts ahead: May CPI release June 10 and June FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,092,409Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The surge in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023, driven by a 0.6% monthly jump and soaring energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions—has shifted trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 62.5% implied probability of no Fed funds rate hike in 2026. The Federal Reserve held its target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 29 FOMC statement amid an 8-4 dissent split, with officials like Boston Fed's Collins now flagging upside inflation risks warranting potential hikes. March dot plot projected modest cuts to low-3% by 2027, but recent data has eroded cut expectations per CME FedWatch, elevating hike odds to around 37%. Key catalysts ahead: May CPI release June 10 and June FOMC projections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,092,409Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The surge in April 2026 CPI to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023, driven by a 0.6% monthly jump and soaring energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions—has shifted trader consensus on Polymarket, pricing a 62.5% implied probability of no Fed funds rate hike in 2026. The Federal Reserve held its target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 29 FOMC statement amid an 8-4 dissent split, with officials like Boston Fed's Collins now flagging upside inflation risks warranting potential hikes. March dot plot projected modest cuts to low-3% by 2027, but recent data has eroded cut expectations per CME FedWatch, elevating hike odds to around 37%. Key catalysts ahead: May CPI release June 10 and June FOMC projections.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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