Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
50% khả năng
$7,448,166 KL.
$7,448,166 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
Có
50% khả năng
$7,448,166 KL.
$7,448,166 KL.
Dec 9, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,448,166Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,448,166Ngày kết thúc
Dec 9, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by elevated energy prices amid Middle East tensions, have shifted market-implied odds toward at least one 25-basis-point hike by year-end, while a softer July jobs report and cooling core CPI to 2.5% support the case for holding the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. With the July FOMC showing a 9-3 vote to pause and the dot plot indicating nine participants penciling in a 2026 increase, trader sentiment remains finely balanced at 50.5% for a hike. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, August CPI and employment data, and further clarity on supply disruptions that could tip the balance toward tighter policy or continued restraint.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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