Polymarket traders' overwhelming 82% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects reaccelerating inflation pressures, headlined by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—coupled with resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in its April 28–29 meeting amid an 8–4 dissent split, signaling caution, while CME FedWatch Tool odds exceed 95% for no June change. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices out near-term cuts amid sticky inflation and geopolitical energy risks, with the June 16–17 decision as the next key catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 82%
Pause–Pause–Cut 13%
Other 11%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
7%
Pause–Cut–Cut
7%
Other
11%
Pause–Pause–Pause 82%
Pause–Pause–Cut 13%
Other 11%
Cut–Pause–Cut 7.9%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
Cut–Pause–Pause
$83 KL.
8%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$105 KL.
8%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$155 KL.
1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$79 KL.
4%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$349 KL.
82%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$146 KL.
13%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$105 KL.
7%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$105 KL.
7%
Other
$105 KL.
11%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' overwhelming 82% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects reaccelerating inflation pressures, headlined by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—coupled with resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in its April 28–29 meeting amid an 8–4 dissent split, signaling caution, while CME FedWatch Tool odds exceed 95% for no June change. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices out near-term cuts amid sticky inflation and geopolitical energy risks, with the June 16–17 decision as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,235Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders' overwhelming 82% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects reaccelerating inflation pressures, headlined by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—coupled with resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in its April 28–29 meeting amid an 8–4 dissent split, signaling caution, while CME FedWatch Tool odds exceed 95% for no June change. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices out near-term cuts amid sticky inflation and geopolitical energy risks, with the June 16–17 decision as the next key catalyst.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,235Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders' overwhelming 82% implied probability on Pause–Pause–Pause for June, July, and September FOMC meetings reflects reaccelerating inflation pressures, headlined by April 2026 CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023—coupled with resilient labor data showing 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions and unemployment steady at 4.3%. The Federal Reserve held the fed funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% in its April 28–29 meeting amid an 8–4 dissent split, signaling caution, while CME FedWatch Tool odds exceed 95% for no June change. This skin-in-the-game consensus prices out near-term cuts amid sticky inflation and geopolitical energy risks, with the June 16–17 decision as the next key catalyst.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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