Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for FOMC meetings in March, April, and June 2026, with 96.5% implied probability, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—on a 0.6% monthly gain, the highest since May 2023. Solid nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs exceeded forecasts amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, bolstering the Fed's restrictive 3.5%-3.75% federal funds stance reaffirmed at the April 28-29 meeting—Powell's last as chair—despite hawkish dissent. This reacceleration in inflation has evaporated near-term rate cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch consensus for holds. Challenges could arise from a surprise labor market weakening or sub-3% CPI in May data ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtDừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.0%
Khác 2.1%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.6%
$1,064,855 KL.
$1,064,855 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
97%
Khác
2%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
2%
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng 97.0%
Khác 2.1%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm 1.6%
$1,064,855 KL.
$1,064,855 KL.
Jun 17, 2026
Dừng–Dừng–Dừng
$54,587 KL.
97%
Khác
$239,369 KL.
2%
Tạm dừng–Tạm dừng–Cắt giảm
$25,557 KL.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for FOMC meetings in March, April, and June 2026, with 96.5% implied probability, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—on a 0.6% monthly gain, the highest since May 2023. Solid nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs exceeded forecasts amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, bolstering the Fed's restrictive 3.5%-3.75% federal funds stance reaffirmed at the April 28-29 meeting—Powell's last as chair—despite hawkish dissent. This reacceleration in inflation has evaporated near-term rate cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch consensus for holds. Challenges could arise from a surprise labor market weakening or sub-3% CPI in May data ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,064,855Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for FOMC meetings in March, April, and June 2026, with 96.5% implied probability, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—on a 0.6% monthly gain, the highest since May 2023. Solid nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs exceeded forecasts amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, bolstering the Fed's restrictive 3.5%-3.75% federal funds stance reaffirmed at the April 28-29 meeting—Powell's last as chair—despite hawkish dissent. This reacceleration in inflation has evaporated near-term rate cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch consensus for holds. Challenges could arise from a surprise labor market weakening or sub-3% CPI in May data ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$1,064,855Ngày kết thúc
Jun 17, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause–Pause–Pause sequence for FOMC meetings in March, April, and June 2026, with 96.5% implied probability, driven by April's hotter-than-expected CPI surging to 3.8% year-over-year—up from 3.3%—on a 0.6% monthly gain, the highest since May 2023. Solid nonfarm payrolls adding 115,000 jobs exceeded forecasts amid a steady 4.3% unemployment rate, bolstering the Fed's restrictive 3.5%-3.75% federal funds stance reaffirmed at the April 28-29 meeting—Powell's last as chair—despite hawkish dissent. This reacceleration in inflation has evaporated near-term rate cut expectations, aligning with CME FedWatch consensus for holds. Challenges could arise from a surprise labor market weakening or sub-3% CPI in May data ahead of the June 16-17 decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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