Traders price a 97% implied probability on exactly 54 senators voting to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified Republican support in their 53-seat Senate majority plus Democratic Sen. John Fetterman's crossover vote, as demonstrated in yesterday's 51-45 confirmation to Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat. This follows the Senate Banking Committee's party-line advancement of the nomination in late April after confirmation hearings, where Warsh outlined plans for Fed "regime change" without predetermining rates. One Democratic absence, like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's, could enable the 54-45 tally. Realistic challenges include a GOP defection from moderates wary of Warsh's past critiques of Fed policy or Fetterman reversing amid party pressure, though whip counts show minimal risk before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật54 97.4%
55 3.6%
53 1.5%
60+ 1.4%
$192,431 KL.
$192,431 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
<1%
50
<1%
51
<1%
52
<1%
53
2%
54
97%
55
4%
56
<1%
57
<1%
58
<1%
59
<1%
60+
1%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
<1%
54 97.4%
55 3.6%
53 1.5%
60+ 1.4%
$192,431 KL.
$192,431 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
≤49
$35,771 KL.
<1%
50
$13,246 KL.
<1%
51
$14,015 KL.
<1%
52
$10,336 KL.
<1%
53
$1,645 KL.
2%
54
$2,116 KL.
97%
55
$844 KL.
4%
56
$16,049 KL.
<1%
57
$13,784 KL.
<1%
58
$14,619 KL.
<1%
59
$14,777 KL.
<1%
60+
$45,632 KL.
1%
No vote by Dec 31/Withdrawn
$9,597 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a 97% implied probability on exactly 54 senators voting to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified Republican support in their 53-seat Senate majority plus Democratic Sen. John Fetterman's crossover vote, as demonstrated in yesterday's 51-45 confirmation to Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat. This follows the Senate Banking Committee's party-line advancement of the nomination in late April after confirmation hearings, where Warsh outlined plans for Fed "regime change" without predetermining rates. One Democratic absence, like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's, could enable the 54-45 tally. Realistic challenges include a GOP defection from moderates wary of Warsh's past critiques of Fed policy or Fetterman reversing amid party pressure, though whip counts show minimal risk before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$192,431Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.Traders price a 97% implied probability on exactly 54 senators voting to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified Republican support in their 53-seat Senate majority plus Democratic Sen. John Fetterman's crossover vote, as demonstrated in yesterday's 51-45 confirmation to Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat. This follows the Senate Banking Committee's party-line advancement of the nomination in late April after confirmation hearings, where Warsh outlined plans for Fed "regime change" without predetermining rates. One Democratic absence, like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's, could enable the 54-45 tally. Realistic challenges include a GOP defection from moderates wary of Warsh's past critiques of Fed policy or Fetterman reversing amid party pressure, though whip counts show minimal risk before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end.
This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.
The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”.
Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$192,431Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 13, 2026, 6:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders price a 97% implied probability on exactly 54 senators voting to confirm Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair, reflecting unified Republican support in their 53-seat Senate majority plus Democratic Sen. John Fetterman's crossover vote, as demonstrated in yesterday's 51-45 confirmation to Warsh's Fed Board of Governors seat. This follows the Senate Banking Committee's party-line advancement of the nomination in late April after confirmation hearings, where Warsh outlined plans for Fed "regime change" without predetermining rates. One Democratic absence, like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's, could enable the 54-45 tally. Realistic challenges include a GOP defection from moderates wary of Warsh's past critiques of Fed policy or Fetterman reversing amid party pressure, though whip counts show minimal risk before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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