Pete Hegseth continues to exercise full authority as Secretary of Defense, with recent congressional testimony on the Iran conflict and the fiscal 2027 budget, joint press briefings, and directives ordering troop reductions from Europe demonstrating ongoing operational leadership through mid-May 2026. No public statements from the White House or Senate Republicans signal an imminent departure, and the department’s name change to the War Department alongside routine contract and personnel adjustments reflect institutional continuity rather than transition. The two-week window remaining until May 31 leaves little practical time for Senate confirmation processes, resignation negotiations, or sudden executive action to take effect, which explains traders’ near-certain consensus on the “No” outcome. Late-breaking developments such as a major scandal or abrupt presidential directive remain the only realistic paths that could alter this positioning before the resolution date.