Despite ongoing U.S.-Iran hostilities that began earlier in 2026, including naval blockades, sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast, and indirect talks mediated by Qatar on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, traders assign an 85.5% probability that the U.S. will not conduct a ground invasion before 2027. Recent developments show President Trump rejecting Iranian proposals for rapid Strait of Hormuz reopening tied to sanctions relief and asset unfreezing, while signaling possible renewed strikes after the November 2026 midterms. U.S. deployments of additional carriers and roughly 9,000 troops appear aimed at bolstering pressure and deterrence rather than enabling occupation. Diplomacy remains the preferred path alongside economic measures, with both sides acknowledging high costs of escalation and no clear path to sustained ground operations within the narrow remaining window.