U.S. officials have prioritized diplomatic negotiations and targeted military actions over any ground invasion of Iran, sustaining trader expectations that no such operation will occur before 2027. Following the February 2026 strikes by U.S. and Israeli forces on Iranian nuclear and military sites, the Trump administration extended a ceasefire into May while advancing a proposed framework to lift sanctions, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and impose limits on uranium enrichment. Pentagon planning has focused on naval blockades, limited special operations, and support for allied strikes rather than large-scale troop commitments. Ongoing talks, including recent U.S. proposals for asset releases and a 12-year nuclear moratorium, reflect a strategy centered on pressure and deals that aligns with the current 69.5% implied probability against invasion.