Israel has conducted multiple airstrikes on Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces and Islamic Resistance in Iraq militia targets inside Iraq during the 2026 Iran war that began in late February, often in coordination with U.S. operations. Covert Israeli outposts established in western Iraq's desert since late 2024 supported those campaigns and earlier strikes on Iran, leading to direct clashes with Iraqi forces in March 2026 that killed one soldier and a civilian. As the U.S. completes its withdrawal on September 30 and Baghdad delays full militia disarmament until 2027, pro-Iran factions continue drone and missile activity while Israeli officials stated on September 25 they are monitoring threats and will respond as needed. These factors shape trader views on the likelihood and timing of additional Israeli military action.