Nicolás Maduro holds an 84% implied probability in the Venezuela leader market for end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus that the power structures from his tenure remain dominant despite his January 2026 ouster by U.S. forces and current U.S. custody on narcotics charges. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president, has governed under U.S. backing, advancing oil and mineral deals while maintaining PSUV control and security apparatus continuity, including figures like Diosdado Cabello. Recent developments, including June earthquakes, delayed opposition talks, and U.S. statements that elections are not imminent, have reinforced expectations of institutional stability favoring established Chavista networks over exiled challengers like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. This dynamic, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela energy cooperation and limited political transition progress, underpins the current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãnh đạo Venezuela cuối năm 2026?
Lãnh đạo Venezuela cuối năm 2026?
Nicolás Maduro 83.9%
Delcy Rodríguez 11%
Không có nguyên thủ quốc gia 1.2%
María Corina Machado 1.1%
$96,113,738 KL.
$96,113,738 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
84%
Delcy Rodríguez
11%
Không có nguyên thủ quốc gia
1%
María Corina Machado
1%
Edmundo González
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Nicolás Maduro 83.9%
Delcy Rodríguez 11%
Không có nguyên thủ quốc gia 1.2%
María Corina Machado 1.1%
$96,113,738 KL.
$96,113,738 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
Nicolás Maduro
$2,866,888 KL.
84%
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,792,658 KL.
11%
Không có nguyên thủ quốc gia
$1,516,912 KL.
1%
María Corina Machado
$1,462,588 KL.
1%
Edmundo González
$1,231,039 KL.
<1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$2,091,587 KL.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$821,191 KL.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$1,167,951 KL.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,991,751 KL.
<1%
Donald Trump
$1,140,373 KL.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$1,418,510 KL.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$9,205,312 KL.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$5,652,243 KL.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$25,817,255 KL.
<1%
Dan Caine
$4,146,756 KL.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$32,790,723 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an 84% implied probability in the Venezuela leader market for end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus that the power structures from his tenure remain dominant despite his January 2026 ouster by U.S. forces and current U.S. custody on narcotics charges. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president, has governed under U.S. backing, advancing oil and mineral deals while maintaining PSUV control and security apparatus continuity, including figures like Diosdado Cabello. Recent developments, including June earthquakes, delayed opposition talks, and U.S. statements that elections are not imminent, have reinforced expectations of institutional stability favoring established Chavista networks over exiled challengers like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. This dynamic, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela energy cooperation and limited political transition progress, underpins the current pricing.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Thị trường mở: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$96,113,738Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Nicolás Maduro holds an 84% implied probability in the Venezuela leader market for end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus that the power structures from his tenure remain dominant despite his January 2026 ouster by U.S. forces and current U.S. custody on narcotics charges. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president, has governed under U.S. backing, advancing oil and mineral deals while maintaining PSUV control and security apparatus continuity, including figures like Diosdado Cabello. Recent developments, including June earthquakes, delayed opposition talks, and U.S. statements that elections are not imminent, have reinforced expectations of institutional stability favoring established Chavista networks over exiled challengers like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. This dynamic, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela energy cooperation and limited political transition progress, underpins the current pricing.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Khối lượng
$96,113,738Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...Nicolás Maduro holds an 84% implied probability in the Venezuela leader market for end of 2026, reflecting trader consensus that the power structures from his tenure remain dominant despite his January 2026 ouster by U.S. forces and current U.S. custody on narcotics charges. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez, his former vice president, has governed under U.S. backing, advancing oil and mineral deals while maintaining PSUV control and security apparatus continuity, including figures like Diosdado Cabello. Recent developments, including June earthquakes, delayed opposition talks, and U.S. statements that elections are not imminent, have reinforced expectations of institutional stability favoring established Chavista networks over exiled challengers like María Corina Machado or Edmundo González. This dynamic, amid ongoing U.S.-Venezuela energy cooperation and limited political transition progress, underpins the current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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