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Thế Giới·Trung Đông

Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?

icon for Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?
Thế Giới·Trung Đông

Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.5%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,595,737 KL.

Mojtaba Khamenei 81.8%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 4.6%

Reza Pahlavi 3.5%

Alireza Arafi 2.5%

Polymarket

$38,595,737 KL.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,012,061 KL.

82%

Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia

$1,148,038 KL.

5%

Reza Pahlavi

$672,285 KL.

3%

Alireza Arafi

$2,311,577 KL.

2%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,119,244 KL.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$944,617 KL.

1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,425,272 KL.

1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$776,724 KL.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,019,700 KL.

1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$917,261 KL.

1%

Abbas Araghchi

$830,953 KL.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$437,404 KL.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$534,784 KL.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,143,745 KL.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$804,583 KL.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$397,001 KL.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,285 KL.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$145,171 KL.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$211,055 KL.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$198,979 KL.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$835,627 KL.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$433,021 KL.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,346,736 KL.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$239,062 KL.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$384,526 KL.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,191,618 KL.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$281,611 KL.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$254,276 KL.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$306,560 KL.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$341,100 KL.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's assassination during the early phase of the 2026 Iran war. This rapid constitutional handover, supported by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity despite the unprecedented father-to-son transition. Recent August 2026 health rumors, amplified by Israeli media reports of critical condition, have prompted official Iranian denials from President Masoud Pezeshkian and state media footage asserting the leader's fitness, with no verified changes to his position. Low probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or "No Head of State" reflect limited near-term momentum for rivals or systemic rupture absent major disruptions before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Khối lượng
$38,595,737
Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds dominant trader consensus for Iran's leadership at the end of 2026 following his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei's assassination during the early phase of the 2026 Iran war. This rapid constitutional handover, supported by hardline clerical networks and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, established institutional continuity despite the unprecedented father-to-son transition. Recent August 2026 health rumors, amplified by Israeli media reports of critical condition, have prompted official Iranian denials from President Masoud Pezeshkian and state media footage asserting the leader's fitness, with no verified changes to his position. Low probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Reza Pahlavi, or "No Head of State" reflect limited near-term momentum for rivals or systemic rupture absent major disruptions before year-end.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Khối lượng
$38,595,737
Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026
Thị trường mở
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

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Câu hỏi thường gặp

"Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 32 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "Mojtaba Khamenei" ở mức 82%, tiếp theo là "Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia" ở mức 5%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 82¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 82% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.

Tính đến hôm nay, "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" đã tạo $38.6 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Feb 28, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?," duyệt 32 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" là "Mojtaba Khamenei" ở mức 82%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 82% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia" ở mức 5%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.

Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.