Mojtaba Khamenei’s March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in late-February strikes anchors the 88% trader consensus for his continued tenure through year-end. The constitutional process, backed by Revolutionary Guard influence and a two-thirds Assembly vote, installed him despite U.S. opposition and his reported injuries from those attacks. Recent months have featured limited public appearances, Israeli media claims of critical condition, and scattered reports of post-ceasefire succession planning, yet Iranian officials including President Pezeshkian have affirmed his health through direct meetings and released footage. With no scheduled Assembly reconvening or formal removal mechanism active before December 31 and alternative candidates such as Alireza Arafi or reformist figures holding negligible positioning, the market reflects continuity in de facto authority amid ongoing regional tensions.