Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.8% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter's assassination in late February during U.S.-Israeli strikes. The swift unanimous or majority vote consolidated power around the younger Khamenei, who has since directed hardline appointments to security and military roles, maintained wartime decision-making through the Supreme National Security Council, and navigated intra-regime dynamics amid ongoing conflict. Traders assign minimal odds to alternatives such as interim figures like Alireza Arafi, opposition voices like Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum, given the regime's demonstrated continuity and lack of successful challenges to date. Recent military and administrative moves further reinforce expectations of stability through year-end, though the active conflict introduces residual uncertainty around health or escalation risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?
Lãnh đạo Iran cuối năm 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.7%
Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 4.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.2%
Alireza Arafi 1.9%
$38,744,550 KL.
$38,744,550 KL.
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
2%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.7%
Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia 4.0%
Reza Pahlavi 3.2%
Alireza Arafi 1.9%
$38,744,550 KL.
$38,744,550 KL.
Mojtaba Khamenei
83%
Không có Nguyên thủ quốc gia
4%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
2%
Ahmad Vahidi
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Thị trường mở: Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.8% implied probability as Iran's leader at the end of 2026, reflecting his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts to succeed his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, following the latter's assassination in late February during U.S.-Israeli strikes. The swift unanimous or majority vote consolidated power around the younger Khamenei, who has since directed hardline appointments to security and military roles, maintained wartime decision-making through the Supreme National Security Council, and navigated intra-regime dynamics amid ongoing conflict. Traders assign minimal odds to alternatives such as interim figures like Alireza Arafi, opposition voices like Reza Pahlavi, or a leadership vacuum, given the regime's demonstrated continuity and lack of successful challenges to date. Recent military and administrative moves further reinforce expectations of stability through year-end, though the active conflict introduces residual uncertainty around health or escalation risks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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