Israel’s October 27, 2026 Knesset election remains the central driver of trader views on Netanyahu’s tenure. Recent polls show his Likud-led bloc averaging around 52 seats while the main opposition grouping centered on Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party hovers near 51–54 seats, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority needed for a stable coalition. Key factors include persistent voter focus on October 7 security failures, Netanyahu’s strained relations with security officials, and coalition partners’ demands for senior portfolios. Opposition leaders have largely ruled out partnerships with Arab parties or a minority government, raising the prospect of prolonged negotiations, a caretaker period, or a repeat election. Netanyahu has signaled he intends to remain Likud chairman regardless of the outcome.