The Islamic Republic has shown notable resilience amid intense pressures, including nationwide protests from late December 2025 through March 2026 over economic collapse, inflation, and currency devaluation. Security forces conducted a coordinated crackdown with internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained the unrest without triggering widespread defections or elite fractures. The February–June 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, which included strikes on leadership and infrastructure plus the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, failed to produce regime collapse or popular uprising despite external calls for change. As of mid-August 2026, the regime maintains institutional cohesion and control over key power centers, with economic grievances continuing but not escalating into existential threats before year-end. This track record underpins trader consensus that the current governing structure will endure through 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
7% khả năng
$24,672,940 KL.
$24,672,940 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
7% khả năng
$24,672,940 KL.
$24,672,940 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has shown notable resilience amid intense pressures, including nationwide protests from late December 2025 through March 2026 over economic collapse, inflation, and currency devaluation. Security forces conducted a coordinated crackdown with internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained the unrest without triggering widespread defections or elite fractures. The February–June 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, which included strikes on leadership and infrastructure plus the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, failed to produce regime collapse or popular uprising despite external calls for change. As of mid-August 2026, the regime maintains institutional cohesion and control over key power centers, with economic grievances continuing but not escalating into existential threats before year-end. This track record underpins trader consensus that the current governing structure will endure through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$24,672,940Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic has shown notable resilience amid intense pressures, including nationwide protests from late December 2025 through March 2026 over economic collapse, inflation, and currency devaluation. Security forces conducted a coordinated crackdown with internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained the unrest without triggering widespread defections or elite fractures. The February–June 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, which included strikes on leadership and infrastructure plus the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, failed to produce regime collapse or popular uprising despite external calls for change. As of mid-August 2026, the regime maintains institutional cohesion and control over key power centers, with economic grievances continuing but not escalating into existential threats before year-end. This track record underpins trader consensus that the current governing structure will endure through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$24,672,940Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic has shown notable resilience amid intense pressures, including nationwide protests from late December 2025 through March 2026 over economic collapse, inflation, and currency devaluation. Security forces conducted a coordinated crackdown with internet blackouts, mass arrests, and lethal force that largely contained the unrest without triggering widespread defections or elite fractures. The February–June 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel, which included strikes on leadership and infrastructure plus the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, failed to produce regime collapse or popular uprising despite external calls for change. As of mid-August 2026, the regime maintains institutional cohesion and control over key power centers, with economic grievances continuing but not escalating into existential threats before year-end. This track record underpins trader consensus that the current governing structure will endure through 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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