Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$17,820,836 KL.
$17,820,836 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$17,820,836 KL.
$17,820,836 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$17,820,836Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$17,820,836Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite widespread 2025–2026 protests sparked by economic collapse and the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military campaign that included the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic has maintained institutional continuity through rapid succession by Mojtaba Khamenei and firm control by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Security forces suppressed demonstrations across more than 200 cities with mass arrests and executions, while a subsequent fragile ceasefire has allowed renewed diplomatic engagement without triggering elite defections or renewed uprisings. Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to the regime enduring past 2026 because these events have reinforced rather than eroded its core coercive and adaptive capacities, though further escalation or leadership fractures could still alter that assessment before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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