Internal power struggles and leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's 2026 death have fueled hardliner accusations of coup plotting against figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and allies, especially amid July truce disputes and US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing factional rivalries within the IRGC and political elite, combined with suppressed 2025-2026 protests and post-war regime change pressures from external actors, sustain uncertainty without triggering a widely reported coup attempt. Trader consensus at low implied probability reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to manage dissent through security measures and internal maneuvering, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and further sanctions could alter factional dynamics by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,115,813 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 KL.
December 31
$74,587 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles and leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's 2026 death have fueled hardliner accusations of coup plotting against figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and allies, especially amid July truce disputes and US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing factional rivalries within the IRGC and political elite, combined with suppressed 2025-2026 protests and post-war regime change pressures from external actors, sustain uncertainty without triggering a widely reported coup attempt. Trader consensus at low implied probability reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to manage dissent through security measures and internal maneuvering, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and further sanctions could alter factional dynamics by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,115,813Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Internal power struggles and leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's 2026 death have fueled hardliner accusations of coup plotting against figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and allies, especially amid July truce disputes and US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing factional rivalries within the IRGC and political elite, combined with suppressed 2025-2026 protests and post-war regime change pressures from external actors, sustain uncertainty without triggering a widely reported coup attempt. Trader consensus at low implied probability reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to manage dissent through security measures and internal maneuvering, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and further sanctions could alter factional dynamics by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,115,813Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Internal power struggles and leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's 2026 death have fueled hardliner accusations of coup plotting against figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian and allies, especially amid July truce disputes and US-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing factional rivalries within the IRGC and political elite, combined with suppressed 2025-2026 protests and post-war regime change pressures from external actors, sustain uncertainty without triggering a widely reported coup attempt. Trader consensus at low implied probability reflects the regime's demonstrated capacity to manage dissent through security measures and internal maneuvering, though scheduled diplomatic deadlines and further sanctions could alter factional dynamics by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp