**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$23,399,380 KL.
Aug 15, 2026
August 15
<1%
August 22
1%
August 31
3%
September 30
7%
October 31
11%
November 30
14%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
19%
June 30, 2027
26%
$23,399,380 KL.
August 15
$52,827 KL.
<1%
August 22
$22,471 KL.
1%
August 31
$1,130,036 KL.
3%
September 30
$431,462 KL.
7%
October 31
$7,555 KL.
11%
November 30
$8,923 KL.
14%
Ngày 31 tháng 12
$3,967,645 KL.
19%
June 30, 2027
$232,284 KL.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
Khối lượng
$23,399,380Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$23,399,380Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as Iran's new Supreme Leader in early March 2026 by the Assembly of Experts following the February 28 assassination of his father, Ali Khamenei, in joint U.S.-Israeli strikes during the ongoing conflict.** This rapid constitutional transition via the interim leadership council and clerical body has anchored trader views, with markets pricing very low near-term odds of further turnover. Key stabilizing factors include broad consensus among Revolutionary Guards commanders, security institutions, and hardline elites, who have renewed pledges of allegiance despite the new leader's limited public profile and reported health questions. Recent military preparations under Mojtaba signal continuity in confrontation policy, while diplomatic channels and internal power balances remain the primary variables that could shift probabilities before late-2026 resolution windows.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp