Mojtaba Khamenei has held the position of Supreme Leader since succeeding his father Ali Khamenei in March 2026 following the latter’s death amid U.S.-Israeli strikes that began the prior month. Trader pricing reflects limited near-term change, with the leading outcome for leadership transition by mid-2027 trading below 25 percent amid reports of Mojtaba’s continued authority through written decrees, military appointments, and directives issued via state channels. In early November 2026, President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly stated that the Supreme Leader had ordered an end to the “neither war nor peace” posture with the United States, signaling openness to dignified negotiations while rejecting pressure. Ongoing regional tensions, unconfirmed reports on Mojtaba’s health and public visibility, and the absence of formal challenges from the Assembly of Experts or other institutions have supported continuity expectations. Potential diplomatic developments or escalations tied to the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions could influence assessments ahead of scheduled resolution dates.