Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 62%
None before 2027 45%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President 44%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 44%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
62%
None before 2027
45%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
44%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
44%
Newsom - California Governor
44%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
44%
Albanese - Australia PM
44%
Putin - Russia President
44%
Takaichi - Japan PM
44%
Abbas - President of Palestine
44%
Macron - France President
44%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
44%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
44%
Merz - German Chancellor
44%
Milei - Argentina President
44%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
44%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
44%
Lecornu - France PM
44%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
39%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
38%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
37%
Trump - USA President
29%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President 62%
None before 2027 45%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President 44%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 44%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
62%
None before 2027
45%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
44%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
44%
Newsom - California Governor
44%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
44%
Albanese - Australia PM
44%
Putin - Russia President
44%
Takaichi - Japan PM
44%
Abbas - President of Palestine
44%
Macron - France President
44%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
44%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
44%
Merz - German Chancellor
44%
Milei - Argentina President
44%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
44%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
44%
Lecornu - France PM
44%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
39%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
38%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
37%
Trump - USA President
29%
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 30, 2026, 10:16 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...
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