**Netanyahu leads individual probabilities at 22.5% due to Israel's October 27, 2026, elections, where his bloc faces a tight contest against opposition parties amid persistent scrutiny over 2023 security failures and coalition dynamics.** Sánchez follows at 10.4% after calling a November 29 snap election triggered by parliamentary defeats on housing measures and widespread protests over affordability. Lecornu’s 5.3% reflects France’s ongoing parliamentary instability, recent government crises, and budget pressures under Macron. Most other listed leaders hold lower odds given stable electoral calendars, consolidated institutional support, or lack of immediate triggers before 2027. Traders price “none before 2027” at 51.5%, reflecting the absence of confirmed near-term departures across the broader field despite localized volatility.