Recent U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025 and early 2026 inflicted severe damage to enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, according to Pentagon and intelligence assessments that extended Iran's breakout timeline to at least 1–2 years or longer. Iran has not resumed large-scale uranium enrichment, faces ongoing IAEA monitoring gaps, and signed understandings reaffirming no nuclear weapons pursuit amid leadership shifts from the conflict. These verified setbacks underpin the 95.5% trader consensus on no acquisition before 2027, consistent with post-strike supply-chain bottlenecks and halted weaponization activities. Scenarios that could still shift odds include underestimated reconstruction speed, external technical aid, or a rapid policy reversal toward weaponization if diplomatic talks collapse.