US intelligence assessments place Iran's timeline to produce weapons-grade uranium and assemble a nuclear device at 9-12 months, unchanged by recent US-Israeli airstrikes—including May 7 targets on weaponization sites, Organization of Defense Innovation and Research facilities, and nuclear scientists—keeping it beyond the 2026 horizon and bolstering 91% "No" odds. A fragile April 7 ceasefire holds amid stalled negotiations via Pakistan, where Iran delays responding to a US proposal on its highly enriched uranium stockpile and enrichment limits, facing internal hardliner resistance. While Energy Secretary Chris Wright warned May 13 of weeks to weapons-grade material from existing 60% stocks, IAEA unverified stockpiles and threats of renewed strikes reinforce trader consensus that diplomacy and military pressure will avert a bomb before 2027 absent a major escalation.