Recent US and Israeli strikes have severely damaged Iran's key nuclear enrichment and related facilities, with IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi reporting in late October 2026 to the UN Security Council that satellite monitoring shows no repair or reconstruction activity at affected sites since 2025. Inspectors lack access to verify the status of Iran's previously declared 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%, limiting confirmation of any weaponization steps. Iranian officials continue diplomatic engagement through mediators while facing international referral to the Security Council over safeguards compliance, and public statements emphasize rebuilding a more resilient latent capability rather than rapid breakout. These factors, alongside historical timelines for testing, underpin trader consensus against a nuclear test before 2027.