Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including recent indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad, have created a near-even split in trader assessments of whether Tehran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Iran continues to assert its inalienable right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while signaling openness to temporary suspensions of three to five years or downblending its stockpile to JCPOA-compliant levels. U.S. proposals seek longer freezes of twelve to fifteen years alongside stockpile removal and enhanced inspections, with mediators exploring a short memorandum to de-escalate broader conflict. These competing positions, combined with unresolved verification issues and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy, sustain the competitive balance. Breakthroughs on sanctions relief or inspection access could shift odds toward agreement, while hardened red lines on either side might reduce the likelihood.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$194,984 KL.
$194,984 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$194,984 KL.
$194,984 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including recent indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad, have created a near-even split in trader assessments of whether Tehran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Iran continues to assert its inalienable right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while signaling openness to temporary suspensions of three to five years or downblending its stockpile to JCPOA-compliant levels. U.S. proposals seek longer freezes of twelve to fifteen years alongside stockpile removal and enhanced inspections, with mediators exploring a short memorandum to de-escalate broader conflict. These competing positions, combined with unresolved verification issues and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy, sustain the competitive balance. Breakthroughs on sanctions relief or inspection access could shift odds toward agreement, while hardened red lines on either side might reduce the likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$194,984Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including recent indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad, have created a near-even split in trader assessments of whether Tehran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Iran continues to assert its inalienable right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while signaling openness to temporary suspensions of three to five years or downblending its stockpile to JCPOA-compliant levels. U.S. proposals seek longer freezes of twelve to fifteen years alongside stockpile removal and enhanced inspections, with mediators exploring a short memorandum to de-escalate broader conflict. These competing positions, combined with unresolved verification issues and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy, sustain the competitive balance. Breakthroughs on sanctions relief or inspection access could shift odds toward agreement, while hardened red lines on either side might reduce the likelihood.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$194,984Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations, including recent indirect talks in Geneva and Islamabad, have created a near-even split in trader assessments of whether Tehran will commit to ending uranium enrichment by December 31. Iran continues to assert its inalienable right to enrichment under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while signaling openness to temporary suspensions of three to five years or downblending its stockpile to JCPOA-compliant levels. U.S. proposals seek longer freezes of twelve to fifteen years alongside stockpile removal and enhanced inspections, with mediators exploring a short memorandum to de-escalate broader conflict. These competing positions, combined with unresolved verification issues and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy, sustain the competitive balance. Breakthroughs on sanctions relief or inspection access could shift odds toward agreement, while hardened red lines on either side might reduce the likelihood.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp