Amid U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites since late February 2026 and heightened IAEA scrutiny, Iran's parliament introduced withdrawal legislation from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) weeks before the ongoing 2026 Review Conference (April 27-May 22), prompting fresh threats from officials like Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. Traders price "No" withdrawal before 2027 at 88.8%, reflecting skepticism of Tehran's repeated rhetorical escalations—dating to 2004—without substantive action, given the treaty's role in legitimizing Iran's civilian nuclear program and the risks of exit, including snapback sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and potential military escalation. Participation in NPT processes underscores this restraint, though late-breaking votes or intensified conflict could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$121,662 KL.
$121,662 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$121,662 KL.
$121,662 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites since late February 2026 and heightened IAEA scrutiny, Iran's parliament introduced withdrawal legislation from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) weeks before the ongoing 2026 Review Conference (April 27-May 22), prompting fresh threats from officials like Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. Traders price "No" withdrawal before 2027 at 88.8%, reflecting skepticism of Tehran's repeated rhetorical escalations—dating to 2004—without substantive action, given the treaty's role in legitimizing Iran's civilian nuclear program and the risks of exit, including snapback sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and potential military escalation. Participation in NPT processes underscores this restraint, though late-breaking votes or intensified conflict could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$121,662Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Amid U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites since late February 2026 and heightened IAEA scrutiny, Iran's parliament introduced withdrawal legislation from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) weeks before the ongoing 2026 Review Conference (April 27-May 22), prompting fresh threats from officials like Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. Traders price "No" withdrawal before 2027 at 88.8%, reflecting skepticism of Tehran's repeated rhetorical escalations—dating to 2004—without substantive action, given the treaty's role in legitimizing Iran's civilian nuclear program and the risks of exit, including snapback sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and potential military escalation. Participation in NPT processes underscores this restraint, though late-breaking votes or intensified conflict could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$121,662Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites since late February 2026 and heightened IAEA scrutiny, Iran's parliament introduced withdrawal legislation from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) weeks before the ongoing 2026 Review Conference (April 27-May 22), prompting fresh threats from officials like Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei. Traders price "No" withdrawal before 2027 at 88.8%, reflecting skepticism of Tehran's repeated rhetorical escalations—dating to 2004—without substantive action, given the treaty's role in legitimizing Iran's civilian nuclear program and the risks of exit, including snapback sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and potential military escalation. Participation in NPT processes underscores this restraint, though late-breaking votes or intensified conflict could shift odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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