Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a confirmed three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and featuring a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides publicly affirmed the halt in kinetic activity, though mutual accusations of violations surfaced as the period ended. A partial swap of 205 prisoners each occurred on May 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to further talks and a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once a comprehensive accord is reached. These developments followed earlier limited pauses, such as the April Easter truce, and continue to shape trader assessments of whether a broader agreement can be formalized by any near-term deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$511,325 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
May 31
2%
June 30
12%
October 31
37%
December 31
48%
$511,325 KL.
May 31
$200,188 KL.
2%
June 30
$177,491 KL.
12%
October 31
$45,405 KL.
37%
December 31
$88,561 KL.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a confirmed three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and featuring a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides publicly affirmed the halt in kinetic activity, though mutual accusations of violations surfaced as the period ended. A partial swap of 205 prisoners each occurred on May 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to further talks and a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once a comprehensive accord is reached. These developments followed earlier limited pauses, such as the April Easter truce, and continue to shape trader assessments of whether a broader agreement can be formalized by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$511,325Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a confirmed three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and featuring a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides publicly affirmed the halt in kinetic activity, though mutual accusations of violations surfaced as the period ended. A partial swap of 205 prisoners each occurred on May 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to further talks and a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once a comprehensive accord is reached. These developments followed earlier limited pauses, such as the April Easter truce, and continue to shape trader assessments of whether a broader agreement can be formalized by any near-term deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$511,325Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-brokered diplomacy produced a confirmed three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, coinciding with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and featuring a planned 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. Both sides publicly affirmed the halt in kinetic activity, though mutual accusations of violations surfaced as the period ended. A partial swap of 205 prisoners each occurred on May 15. Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled openness to further talks and a potential meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a third country once a comprehensive accord is reached. These developments followed earlier limited pauses, such as the April Easter truce, and continue to shape trader assessments of whether a broader agreement can be formalized by any near-term deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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