Ongoing battlefield advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine through early August 2026, combined with mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian areas, have reinforced trader views of entrenched positions. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to U.S. mediators in mid-August, yet Russian officials continue to signal no readiness for a comprehensive ceasefire or formal talks before year-end, citing unresolved territorial and security issues. Short U.S.-brokered pauses earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without broader de-escalation. European capitals are exploring formats to join any future process, while scheduled Russian parliamentary activity could influence mobilization decisions. These dynamics sustain low implied probabilities for an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by late 2026 absent major shifts in leverage or direct high-level engagement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,990,516 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
9%
August 31
2%
December 31
23%
March 31, 2027
41%
June 30, 2027
55%
$5,990,516 KL.
October 31
$861,486 KL.
9%
August 31
$433,776 KL.
2%
December 31
$2,153,627 KL.
23%
March 31, 2027
$3,477 KL.
41%
June 30, 2027
$818 KL.
55%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing battlefield advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine through early August 2026, combined with mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian areas, have reinforced trader views of entrenched positions. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to U.S. mediators in mid-August, yet Russian officials continue to signal no readiness for a comprehensive ceasefire or formal talks before year-end, citing unresolved territorial and security issues. Short U.S.-brokered pauses earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without broader de-escalation. European capitals are exploring formats to join any future process, while scheduled Russian parliamentary activity could influence mobilization decisions. These dynamics sustain low implied probabilities for an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by late 2026 absent major shifts in leverage or direct high-level engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,990,516Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing battlefield advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine through early August 2026, combined with mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian areas, have reinforced trader views of entrenched positions. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to U.S. mediators in mid-August, yet Russian officials continue to signal no readiness for a comprehensive ceasefire or formal talks before year-end, citing unresolved territorial and security issues. Short U.S.-brokered pauses earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without broader de-escalation. European capitals are exploring formats to join any future process, while scheduled Russian parliamentary activity could influence mobilization decisions. These dynamics sustain low implied probabilities for an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by late 2026 absent major shifts in leverage or direct high-level engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$5,990,516Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing battlefield advances by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine through early August 2026, combined with mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure and civilian areas, have reinforced trader views of entrenched positions. Ukraine transmitted fresh proposals to U.S. mediators in mid-August, yet Russian officials continue to signal no readiness for a comprehensive ceasefire or formal talks before year-end, citing unresolved territorial and security issues. Short U.S.-brokered pauses earlier in 2026 produced only prisoner exchanges without broader de-escalation. European capitals are exploring formats to join any future process, while scheduled Russian parliamentary activity could influence mobilization decisions. These dynamics sustain low implied probabilities for an official, mutually agreed halt in hostilities by late 2026 absent major shifts in leverage or direct high-level engagement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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