Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO accession remains unchanged, with officials rejecting any formal renunciation despite stalled membership prospects and ongoing peace efforts. Recent US statements, including from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, emphasize that accession is currently off the table amid the priority of ending the war and the need for unanimous allied consensus, while Ukraine continues receiving substantial military support and integration into NATO exercises starting in 2027. Trader consensus at 95% for “No” reflects the absence of any Ukrainian agreement to forgo membership before 2027, reinforced by persistent battlefield realities and lack of breakthroughs in negotiations. Potential shifts could arise from a comprehensive peace framework offering alternative security guarantees, domestic constitutional changes, or altered alliance dynamics before the deadline.