Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core foreign policy goal, combined with the alliance’s repeated reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession, anchors trader expectations that Kyiv will not formally agree to forgo entry before 2027. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged €70 billion in military aid for 2026 with equivalent commitments for 2027 while again endorsing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, and President Zelensky continued to frame membership as essential security. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or Ukrainian concession on neutrality has emerged in ongoing talks with Russia or Western partners, and domestic law plus public sentiment reinforce resistance to such a pledge. These factors sustain the market’s strong consensus against the proposed agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật9% khả năng
$134,442 KL.
$134,442 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
9% khả năng
$134,442 KL.
$134,442 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core foreign policy goal, combined with the alliance’s repeated reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession, anchors trader expectations that Kyiv will not formally agree to forgo entry before 2027. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged €70 billion in military aid for 2026 with equivalent commitments for 2027 while again endorsing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, and President Zelensky continued to frame membership as essential security. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or Ukrainian concession on neutrality has emerged in ongoing talks with Russia or Western partners, and domestic law plus public sentiment reinforce resistance to such a pledge. These factors sustain the market’s strong consensus against the proposed agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$134,442Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core foreign policy goal, combined with the alliance’s repeated reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession, anchors trader expectations that Kyiv will not formally agree to forgo entry before 2027. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged €70 billion in military aid for 2026 with equivalent commitments for 2027 while again endorsing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, and President Zelensky continued to frame membership as essential security. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or Ukrainian concession on neutrality has emerged in ongoing talks with Russia or Western partners, and domestic law plus public sentiment reinforce resistance to such a pledge. These factors sustain the market’s strong consensus against the proposed agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Khối lượng
$134,442Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core foreign policy goal, combined with the alliance’s repeated reaffirmations of an “irreversible path” to accession, anchors trader expectations that Kyiv will not formally agree to forgo entry before 2027. At the July 2026 Ankara Summit, allies pledged €70 billion in military aid for 2026 with equivalent commitments for 2027 while again endorsing Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration, and President Zelensky continued to frame membership as essential security. No verified diplomatic breakthrough or Ukrainian concession on neutrality has emerged in ongoing talks with Russia or Western partners, and domestic law plus public sentiment reinforce resistance to such a pledge. These factors sustain the market’s strong consensus against the proposed agreement.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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