NATO allies reaffirmed their commitment to Article 5 collective defense at the July 2026 Ankara Summit while pledging continued military aid and training for Ukraine at €70 billion levels through 2027. This approach emphasizes deterrence, European capability-building, and support short of direct combat involvement against Russia, consistent with ongoing gray-zone tensions that have not triggered the clause. Historical precedent shows invocation only once after 9/11, and recent frictions such as U.S. policy toward Greenland have been managed through diplomacy rather than alliance-wide military activation. Traders assign 95% probability to no invocation before 2027, reflecting consensus that current diplomatic and aid frameworks, absent major escalation, keep direct NATO-Russia conflict unlikely in the near term.