Trader consensus prices a low 14.5% chance of NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, driven by Russia's entrenched commitment to the Ukraine war, which ties down its forces and precludes major escalation against NATO members like the Baltic states or Poland. No armed attack on Alliance territory has occurred despite hybrid threats and airspace incidents, with unanimous consensus required for invocation—a high bar met only once post-9/11. Recent NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's May 13 statements at the B9 summit reaffirmed Russia as the primary threat while underscoring robust deterrence, including enhanced eastern flank deployments. Russia-Belarus Zapad exercises launched May 13 near borders remain routine, not crossing into overt aggression. Upcoming NATO summits could further solidify commitments, though tail risks persist from potential gray-zone provocations or Ukraine breakthroughs freeing Russian resources.