Ukraine's sustained long-range drone and missile campaign against Russian logistics, air defenses, fuel depots, and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea has intensified through 2026, with operations such as "Crimean Switch Off" damaging hundreds of power facilities between July and early October. These strikes, including recent hits on S-400 systems and substations, have disrupted supply lines via the Kerch Bridge and ferries while forcing Russian occupation authorities to impose fuel rationing and emergency measures. No ground offensives toward the peninsula have materialized amid the broader Donbas fighting, where Ukrainian forces have conducted counteroffensives such as Operation Vivaldi. Recapture would require overcoming extensive Russian fortifications and shifting from asymmetric degradation to conventional advances, factors that shape trader assessments of timelines and feasibility.