The Trump administration has maintained and expanded its maximum pressure campaign on Cuba since early 2026, including a fuel blockade, tariffs targeting third-country oil suppliers, and June sanctions on the state-owned Unión Cuba-Petróleo that freeze assets and restrict dealings with U.S. persons. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan supplies after Maduro’s ouster and have contributed to Cuba’s fuel shortages and power outages, yet official statements and actions show no shift toward broad oil sanction relief. Limited case-by-case humanitarian waivers remain in place without altering the overall policy framework established by the January national emergency order. Traders therefore assess the likelihood of an announcement of relief as low absent a major diplomatic breakthrough or policy reversal before any near-term deadline.