Marine Le Pen leads trader consensus for the 2027 French presidential election at 43.1% implied probability, reflecting her consistent first-round polling dominance near 33-36% amid voter concerns over the economy, purchasing power, and security as Emmanuel Macron’s term concludes. The Rassemblement National’s recent institutional gains, including a new Senate group, have reinforced this positioning ahead of the April 18 first round. Édouard Philippe at 19.5% and Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 13.5% trail as the main contenders for a runoff spot, with late September surveys showing them neck-and-neck or Mélenchon slightly ahead depending on centrist configurations involving Gabriel Attal or Raphaël Glucksmann. Persistent fragmentation across the center and left, combined with polarized turnout dynamics, keeps outcomes fluid despite Le Pen’s current edge in most tested runoff scenarios.