France's fragmented parliament and minority government under Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu face a contentious 2027 budget process amid elevated public debt servicing costs and rising defense outlays, with spending ceilings already signaling restraint measures. The 2026 budget required special constitutional powers and survived no-confidence votes only after months of deadlock, highlighting persistent coalition fragility ahead of the 2027 presidential election. Draft legislation is slated for late September submission, but trader-implied odds of 69.5% against passage by year-end reflect risks of further parliamentary gridlock, potential concessions diluting fiscal targets, and election-year reluctance to approve deep spending curbs. Key catalysts include October parliamentary debates and any shifts in opposition support from socialists or centrists.