Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 31 tháng 5?
Chế độ Iran sẽ sụp đổ vào ngày 31 tháng 5?
Có
$19,991,724 KL.
$19,991,724 KL.
May 31, 2026
Có
$19,991,724 KL.
$19,991,724 KL.
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$19,991,724Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$19,991,724Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors no regime collapse by May 31, driven by the Iranian government's successful suppression of widespread protests that erupted in late 2025 and early 2026, where security forces killed thousands amid a brutal crackdown including mass arrests and executions. Despite the 2026 war with the US and Israel causing economic strain and hopes for internal uprising, the Islamic Republic has held firm, exploiting the ongoing ceasefire—confirmed holding as of mid-May—to reconstitute IRGC military capabilities and prepare for potential unrest without signs of mass defections or civil disobedience in recent weeks. With only two weeks remaining, formidable barriers like the regime's repressive apparatus persist, though sudden escalation, leadership vacuums, or unmanageable economic implosion could theoretically alter outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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