Persistent US-Iran tensions, including 2026 military strikes, a fragile April ceasefire, and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz access, sustain the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening. No diplomatic relations have existed since 1979, with the Swiss embassy serving as protecting power and repeated security alerts directing Americans to depart or shelter in place. Ongoing negotiations, such as the June Islamabad Memorandum, focus on ending hostilities and navigation issues but show no progress toward full normalization or consular facilities. Late-year breakthroughs in bilateral talks, verified de-escalation, or formal agreements lifting sanctions and establishing reciprocal embassies remain the primary scenarios that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
5% khả năng
$158,294 KL.
$158,294 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5% khả năng
$158,294 KL.
$158,294 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions, including 2026 military strikes, a fragile April ceasefire, and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz access, sustain the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening. No diplomatic relations have existed since 1979, with the Swiss embassy serving as protecting power and repeated security alerts directing Americans to depart or shelter in place. Ongoing negotiations, such as the June Islamabad Memorandum, focus on ending hostilities and navigation issues but show no progress toward full normalization or consular facilities. Late-year breakthroughs in bilateral talks, verified de-escalation, or formal agreements lifting sanctions and establishing reciprocal embassies remain the primary scenarios that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$158,294Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent US-Iran tensions, including 2026 military strikes, a fragile April ceasefire, and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz access, sustain the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening. No diplomatic relations have existed since 1979, with the Swiss embassy serving as protecting power and repeated security alerts directing Americans to depart or shelter in place. Ongoing negotiations, such as the June Islamabad Memorandum, focus on ending hostilities and navigation issues but show no progress toward full normalization or consular facilities. Late-year breakthroughs in bilateral talks, verified de-escalation, or formal agreements lifting sanctions and establishing reciprocal embassies remain the primary scenarios that could shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$158,294Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent US-Iran tensions, including 2026 military strikes, a fragile April ceasefire, and renewed clashes over Strait of Hormuz access, sustain the 95.5% trader consensus against embassy reopening. No diplomatic relations have existed since 1979, with the Swiss embassy serving as protecting power and repeated security alerts directing Americans to depart or shelter in place. Ongoing negotiations, such as the June Islamabad Memorandum, focus on ending hostilities and navigation issues but show no progress toward full normalization or consular facilities. Late-year breakthroughs in bilateral talks, verified de-escalation, or formal agreements lifting sanctions and establishing reciprocal embassies remain the primary scenarios that could shift probabilities before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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