Escalating military tensions following reported US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites on May 7 have driven recent trader sentiment in the Iran airspace closure market, pushing implied probabilities for a full shutdown by May 31 toward the mid-30s percent range. Fragile ceasefire extensions since April 8, combined with Iran’s new transit regulations in the Strait of Hormuz and selective restrictions on commercial overflights, have kept regional flight paths disrupted and heightened expectations of IRGC countermeasures. Partial reopenings of eastern Tehran FIR corridors above FL285 have eased some immediate pressures, yet stalled Geneva talks and ongoing drone activity near UAE and Kuwait airspace maintain upside risk for a qualifying closure before the deadline. Traders weigh these factors against Iran’s historical pattern of short-duration restrictions, viewing any further retaliatory strikes or diplomatic breakdowns as the primary near-term catalysts.

May 10 2026

Iran bans small private aircraft flights amid regional tensions

May 15 jumps to 14%5%

Iran issued a notice banning small private aircraft from flying in the country, with exceptions for the oil industry and emergency medical flights. This indicated heightened security concerns but did not constitute a major airspace closure affecting commercial flights.

May 9 2026

Iran resumes commercial flights at Tehran’s international airport after war hiatus

May 15 plunges to 4%28%

On May 9, 2026, Iranian state media reported the resumption of commercial flights at Imam Khomeini International Airport in Tehran for the first time since the war with the United States and Israel began. This reopening indicated that Iran's airspace was not broadly closed and commercial aviation was operational, reducing the likelihood of a major airspace closure by the May 15 deadline.