Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the May 4 launch of Operation Project Freedom remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on which countries will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. U.S. guided-missile destroyers have conducted multiple passages amid skirmishes, while President Trump’s public call for assistance from the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China has produced limited commitments, including a UK destroyer pledge. Elevated shipping insurance premiums and sharply reduced tanker volumes have kept energy markets on edge, with Brent crude exhibiting heightened volatility tied to any confirmed additional transits. Key near-term catalysts include potential further European or Asian naval deployments and any de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
$978,539 KL.
May 31, 2026
United Kingdom
4%
France
5%
Germany
2%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
4%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
5%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$978,539 KL.
United Kingdom
$158,515 KL.
4%
France
$94,725 KL.
5%
Germany
$158,829 KL.
2%
Italy
$73,958 KL.
1%
Netherlands
$50,298 KL.
1%
Japan
$108,986 KL.
1%
Canada
$19,730 KL.
<1%
India
$4,449 KL.
2%
Greece
$18,111 KL.
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 KL.
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,254 KL.
2%
UAE
$2,764 KL.
4%
Bahrain
$18,194 KL.
4%
Qatar
$5,626 KL.
<1%
Kuwait
$1,101 KL.
5%
Oman
$4,498 KL.
1%
South Korea
$82,690 KL.
<1%
Australia
$72,042 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the May 4 launch of Operation Project Freedom remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on which countries will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. U.S. guided-missile destroyers have conducted multiple passages amid skirmishes, while President Trump’s public call for assistance from the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China has produced limited commitments, including a UK destroyer pledge. Elevated shipping insurance premiums and sharply reduced tanker volumes have kept energy markets on edge, with Brent crude exhibiting heightened volatility tied to any confirmed additional transits. Key near-term catalysts include potential further European or Asian naval deployments and any de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Thị trường mở: May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$978,539Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the May 4 launch of Operation Project Freedom remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on which countries will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. U.S. guided-missile destroyers have conducted multiple passages amid skirmishes, while President Trump’s public call for assistance from the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China has produced limited commitments, including a UK destroyer pledge. Elevated shipping insurance premiums and sharply reduced tanker volumes have kept energy markets on edge, with Brent crude exhibiting heightened volatility tied to any confirmed additional transits. Key near-term catalysts include potential further European or Asian naval deployments and any de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Khối lượng
$978,539Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran naval tensions and the May 4 launch of Operation Project Freedom remain the dominant driver of trader sentiment on which countries will transit warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. U.S. guided-missile destroyers have conducted multiple passages amid skirmishes, while President Trump’s public call for assistance from the UK, France, Japan, South Korea, and China has produced limited commitments, including a UK destroyer pledge. Elevated shipping insurance premiums and sharply reduced tanker volumes have kept energy markets on edge, with Brent crude exhibiting heightened volatility tied to any confirmed additional transits. Key near-term catalysts include potential further European or Asian naval deployments and any de-escalation signals ahead of the May 31 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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