Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of the pre-2026 average of roughly 100–138 vessels daily, with recent data showing single-digit to low-teen daily crossings amid mine clearance operations, insurance surcharges, and sporadic attacks. This disruption has accelerated drawdowns in global oil inventories, which analysts project could approach record lows by late May if volumes remain suppressed, supporting elevated Brent and WTI crude prices and wider risk premiums in energy futures. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds pricing a meaningful chance that daily transits fail to reach even modest thresholds before the May 31 cutoff. Key near-term catalysts include any U.S. resumption of escorted transits under Project Freedom and potential diplomatic signals that could ease Iranian restrictions or prompt a rebound in tanker and bulk carrier movements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$472,916 KL.
May 31, 2026
20+
45%
40+
16%
60+
8%
80+
4%
$472,916 KL.
20+
$110,082 KL.
45%
40+
$117,112 KL.
16%
60+
$64,925 KL.
8%
80+
$180,796 KL.
4%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of the pre-2026 average of roughly 100–138 vessels daily, with recent data showing single-digit to low-teen daily crossings amid mine clearance operations, insurance surcharges, and sporadic attacks. This disruption has accelerated drawdowns in global oil inventories, which analysts project could approach record lows by late May if volumes remain suppressed, supporting elevated Brent and WTI crude prices and wider risk premiums in energy futures. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds pricing a meaningful chance that daily transits fail to reach even modest thresholds before the May 31 cutoff. Key near-term catalysts include any U.S. resumption of escorted transits under Project Freedom and potential diplomatic signals that could ease Iranian restrictions or prompt a rebound in tanker and bulk carrier movements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ET
Khối lượng
$472,916Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of the pre-2026 average of roughly 100–138 vessels daily, with recent data showing single-digit to low-teen daily crossings amid mine clearance operations, insurance surcharges, and sporadic attacks. This disruption has accelerated drawdowns in global oil inventories, which analysts project could approach record lows by late May if volumes remain suppressed, supporting elevated Brent and WTI crude prices and wider risk premiums in energy futures. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds pricing a meaningful chance that daily transits fail to reach even modest thresholds before the May 31 cutoff. Key near-term catalysts include any U.S. resumption of escorted transits under Project Freedom and potential diplomatic signals that could ease Iranian restrictions or prompt a rebound in tanker and bulk carrier movements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
The number of daily transit calls/arrivals includes container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points, made within this market’s timeframe, will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$472,916Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 4:59 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the U.S.-Iran conflict have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at a fraction of the pre-2026 average of roughly 100–138 vessels daily, with recent data showing single-digit to low-teen daily crossings amid mine clearance operations, insurance surcharges, and sporadic attacks. This disruption has accelerated drawdowns in global oil inventories, which analysts project could approach record lows by late May if volumes remain suppressed, supporting elevated Brent and WTI crude prices and wider risk premiums in energy futures. Trader sentiment on related Polymarket contracts reflects this uncertainty, with market-implied odds pricing a meaningful chance that daily transits fail to reach even modest thresholds before the May 31 cutoff. Key near-term catalysts include any U.S. resumption of escorted transits under Project Freedom and potential diplomatic signals that could ease Iranian restrictions or prompt a rebound in tanker and bulk carrier movements.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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