Ongoing geopolitical tensions from the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian strait closure have kept commercial traffic at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels, with recent October attacks on tankers and stalled diplomacy reinforcing trader consensus around the 86.5% implied probability of no return to normal in 2026. Elevated war-risk insurance premiums at multiples of baseline and Brent crude holding above $105 per barrel reflect sustained supply disruption risks, while limited bypass pipeline capacity constrains alternatives. Fresh attacks through early October and Iran's rejection of US proposals via intermediaries have further anchored market-implied odds against near-term normalization in October, November, or December.